Abstract In the first half of 2014, China's industrial economic operation remained generally stable, and energy utilization efficiency continued to increase. Looking forward to the second half of the year, the era of high growth in manufacturing and real estate investment has led to a slowdown in industrial investment, and consumption highlights have not led to a general stabilization of consumption.
In the first half of 2014, China's industrial economic operation remained generally stable, and energy utilization efficiency continued to increase. Looking forward to the second half of the year, the era of high growth in manufacturing and real estate investment has led to a slowdown in industrial investment. The consumption highlights have not led to a general stabilization of consumption. It is expected that the growth rate of industrial enterprises above designated size will be about 9.1%. With the strong promotion of energy conservation and emission reduction policies and measures such as air pollution control, the role of structural energy conservation will become increasingly prominent. However, with the introduction of “micro-stimulus†policy measures and large-scale construction of infrastructure such as railways, the situation of industrial energy conservation and emission reduction is still grim. Experts suggest that while promoting the research and development and industrialization of core technologies for energy conservation and emission reduction, we must accelerate the pace of energy conservation and emission reduction standards development and taxation reform. A data
Experience severe challenges, industrial growth rebounded slightly
In the first half of 2014, although China's industry experienced severe challenges of coexisting various complicated factors, it still achieved steady growth. In the second quarter, industrial growth rebounded slightly from the first quarter.
Three troikas drop two liters
The growth rate of industrial investment continued to decline. The year-on-year growth rate was only 14.0% from January to May this year, and the growth rate dropped by 1.0 percentage point from the first quarter. In terms of exports, the export delivery value increased by 4.9% from January to May, and the growth rate rebounded by 0.7 percentage points from the first quarter, which was basically the same as that at the end of last year, indicating that China's industrial exports have improved slightly. Consumption maintained steady growth. From January to May this year, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 12.1% year-on-year, which was a rebound from the first quarter. The consumption growth rate has continued to rise slightly this year.
Industrial production has picked up
From January to May, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 8.7% year-on-year, which was the same as that in the first quarter. From the current month, the industrial added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 8.8% year-on-year in May, 0.1 percentage points faster than that in April. In terms of the chain, May increased by 0.71% from the previous month. In terms of products, the output of major products is generally warmer than that in the first quarter. The growth rate of steel, cement and crude oil processing volume rebounded by 0.8, 0.1 and 1.6 percentage points respectively compared with the first quarter. The automobile production was flat with the first quarter. Although the power generation and ethylene showed a downward trend, the decline was small, both of which were 0.1 percentage points. .
Continued deflation in the industrial sector
From January to May, the industrial producers' ex-factory price index (PPI) and industrial producer purchase price index (PPIRM) continued to decline negatively, down 1.9% and 2.1% respectively, of which PPI narrowed by 0.1 points from the first quarter, PPIRM and The quarter was flat. In May, PPI and PPIRM decreased by 1.4% and 1.8% respectively, and the declines were narrowed by 0.6 and 0.5 percentage points respectively from the previous month. So far, the PPI has been falling for 27 consecutive months, which shows that the deflation in the industrial sector is very obvious, and the problem of overcapacity is still serious.
Industrial electricity low position operation
From January to May, the national industrial electricity consumption increased by 5.0% year-on-year, and the growth rate dropped by 0.2 percentage points from the first quarter, but it was up 0.4 percentage points from the same period of last year. Among them, the electricity consumption of light and heavy industries increased by 4.6% and 5.1% respectively, and the growth rate dropped by 0.4 and 0.2 percentage points respectively compared with the first quarter of this year. Compared with the same period of last year, the growth rate of light industrial electricity consumption dropped by 0.5 percentage points, and the heavy industry improved. 0.6 percentage points. From the historical trend, the growth rate of industrial electricity consumption has been in the single-digit growth range for three consecutive years, and the overall operation continues at a low level.
B operating characteristics
Energy use efficiency increases, energy saving and emission reduction pressure increases
Energy consumption grows faster
In the first half of the year, China's industrial energy consumption grew rapidly, but energy use efficiency continued to increase. The industrial added value energy consumption of industrial units above designated size fell by about 6%, achieving the expected energy conservation goals.
Affected by the high growth rate of high-energy industries, China's industrial energy consumption is still growing rapidly. From January to April, the national industrial electricity consumption was 1,217.2 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 4.9%. The growth rate was 0.2 percentage points higher than the same period of the previous year; the industrial electricity consumption accounted for 71.0% of the total electricity consumption in the whole society. There is rise. From January to April, the elasticity coefficient of industrial power consumption above designated size was 0.56; in April, the elasticity coefficient of industrial power consumption above designated size was 0.44, which was in a downward trend. The decline in the elasticity of power consumption indicates that the industrial energy productivity in the second quarter continued to increase. In the first quarter, the industrial added value of industrial units above designated size fell by 5%. It is expected that the industrial added value of industrial units above designated size will fall by about 6% in the first half of the year. In this regard, the expected target of a 4.5% annual decline has been exceeded. By the end of June, the industrial added value energy consumption of industrial units above designated size reached 1.54 tons of standard coal, down 19.8% from the 1.92 tons of standard coal in 2010.
The growth rate of total energy consumption in the four high-energy industries is lower than the industrial average. From January to April, the total electricity consumption of the four high-energy industries such as chemical industry, building materials, steel and nonferrous metals totaled 53.4 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 4.5%, which was lower than the national industrial power consumption growth rate of 0.4 percentage points. From January to April, the growth rate of electricity consumption in industries such as chemical, steel and nonferrous metals fell by 0.8, 3.1 and 3.2 percentage points respectively compared with the same period of the previous year. The electricity consumption of the building materials industry increased by 10.6% year-on-year, and the growth rate increased by 9.8 over the same period of the previous year. percentage point. From January to April, the elasticity coefficient of power consumption in the building materials industry was greater than 1, indicating that the energy consumption per unit of industrial added value of the building materials industry increased; the elasticity coefficient of electricity consumption in the chemical, steel and nonferrous industries was less than 1, indicating that the industrial added value of industrial units decreased. Among them, the increase in the elasticity of power consumption in the chemical and non-ferrous industries in April showed that the energy consumption of industrial added value of these two industries will rebound in the second quarter.
Industry development and energy conservation and emission reduction are difficult to resolve
In the first half of this year, problems such as shrinking domestic demand, slowing export growth, and overcapacity have gradually become prominent. China's industrial economic growth has slowed down. Facing the downward pressure on economic growth, the country has launched a series of “micro-stimulus policy measures, including continuing to reduce small The tax burden of micro-enterprises, raising funds to transform shanty towns, absorbing social capital, speeding up railway construction, and directional RRR reduction. Although these micro-stimulus policies are different from large-scale bailouts, the main means are to reduce taxes, decentralize, and open up the state-run sector to private enterprises. Capital adjusts structure and promotes reform, but micro-stimulus policies are also accompanied by large-scale construction of infrastructure such as railways, which will drive demand for high-energy products such as steel and building materials.
Taking Ningxia as an example, the second phase of Ningdong Energy and Chemical Industry Base is under construction, including coal, electricity and coal chemical industry projects and infrastructure construction projects. Seven large power plants in Ningdong coalfield have been completed and put into operation. In April, Xinjiang Jimsar County started construction of 15 key industrial projects with a total investment of 198.3 billion yuan, including 11 coal, electricity and coal chemical projects, 3 non-ferrous metal smelting projects and 1 chemical project. The commencement and commissioning of a large number of high-energy projects will inevitably increase the pressure on industrial energy conservation and emission reduction in the western region. How to deal with the relationship between economic development and energy conservation and emission reduction in the western region is still a prominent problem.
The pace of promotion of energy efficient products is slowing down
On June 1 last year, the subsidies for the five major categories of energy-saving appliances, such as air conditioners, refrigerators, washing machines, flat-panel TVs and water heaters, were suspended. On November 1, last year, four categories of energy-saving industrial products such as fans, pumps, compressors and transformers were used. The civil engineering subsidy policy has also expired. Although the subsidy policy for Huimin Engineering, such as energy-saving vehicles, green lighting and high-efficiency motors, is still continuing, the original energy-saving products Huimin project promotion catalogue, such as the energy-saving automobile final product promotion catalogue, has been invalidated, and the new energy-saving products in the first half of this year have been shortlisted. Unorganized review has led to a lack of subsidy basis for energy-efficient terminal energy-using products. The pace of promotion and implementation is lagging behind. It is urgent to review and publish new energy-saving product promotion catalogues as soon as possible to further increase the market share of energy-efficient terminal energy-using products.
C problem
Overcapacity is difficult to change, business pressure is increasing
The contradiction of overcapacity is still outstanding
Judging from the questionnaire survey conducted by the National Bureau of Statistics on 5,945 industrial enterprises except Tibet, in the first quarter of 2014, the average equipment utilization rate of enterprises was 77.9%, down 1.7 percentage points year-on-year. Domestic orders fell, export orders were weak, and the contradiction between market supply and demand remained outstanding. The domestic and international orders index was 44.4% and 45.4%, respectively, down 4.4 and 1.2 percentage points year-on-year, and only 7.3% of enterprises considered “supply less than demandâ€. Judging from the five industries with severe overcapacity, the cumulative growth rate of total profit of ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry, non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling industry has been falling continuously this year. The cumulative growth rate of total profit in April was -11.3% and -5.9 respectively. %, respectively, lower than industrial enterprises 21.3 and 15.9 percentage points.
Difficulties in financing the real economy
At present, the overall economic situation is weakening, and bank risk appetite is weakening. Financial institutions are more inclined to put funds in the interbank market to obtain risk-free returns, rather than investing in the real economy. The data shows that from January to May this year, the scale of social financing was 8.58 trillion yuan, a decrease of 535 billion yuan over the same period last year. At the same time, the weighted average interest rate of RMB loans of financial institutions in the first quarter also rose from 6.65% last year to 7.18%. In addition, 2014 is a period of trust redemption, and nearly 1.3 trillion yuan of trust products will expire, and the degree of difficulty in financing enterprises will be further deepened. Although the risk of “money shortage†in the middle of the year is not the same as last year, the problem of difficult financing of the real economy caused by the unreasonable allocation of financial resources still plagues enterprises for a long time.
For industries with overcapacity, financial institutions have reduced their credit funds. Take ICBC as an example. As of the end of 2013, the balance of loans for steel, cement, flat glass, common non-ferrous metal smelting, and the five major industries with severe overcapacity of ships was 1.65 trillion yuan, a decrease of 55.543 billion yuan or 3.26% from the beginning of the year. However, it should be noted that the break of the capital chain is likely to lead to a large outbreak of credit risk in industries with overcapacity, which leads to an increase in bad credit of financial institutions. Although it has helped the restructuring of overcapacity enterprises through mergers and acquisitions, it requires a lot of financial support, which also makes financial institutions in a dilemma.
High cost and squeezed profit margin
Due to the multiple factors such as rising labor and raw material costs, insufficient market demand, and severe overcapacity, the economic benefits of enterprises have fallen sharply, and production and operation are facing more difficulties. Since the beginning of this year, the cost per 100 yuan of main business income of industrial enterprises above designated size has continued to rise, and has now risen from 85.18 yuan at the beginning of the year to 85.80 yuan. At the same time, the growth rate of corporate financial expenses was as high as 17.4% year-on-year, and the growth rate was 1.6 percentage points faster than that in the first quarter, a significant increase of 12.0 percentage points from the same period last year. The high cost of enterprise cost squeezed the profits of the company, which made the profit rate of the company always at a low level. The profit rate of the main business income from January to April was 5.4%, which was the same as that in the first quarter, but still significantly decreased compared with 6.1% at the end of last year. .
The decline in corporate profitability has constrained the pace of structural adjustment. From February to April 2014, the cumulative value of the main business profits of industrial enterprises above designated size reached 7793.14, 12942.4, and 1762.87 billion yuan, an increase of 9.4%, 10.1%, and 10%, respectively, down 7.8, 2, 2.3 percentage points year-on-year. . The cumulative number of loss-making enterprises reached 76,415, 72,125 and 61,431, respectively, with an increase of 1.8%, 2.7%, and 1.9%, accounting for 17.28%, 19.52%, and 20.86% of the enterprises above designated size.
D trend
Investment growth continued to decline, consumption showed a slight increase
Exports are generally slowing down
The developed economies as a whole showed a recovery, but the pace was slower. The US economy continued to recover. In May, the US manufacturing PMI was 55.4%, up 0.5 percentage points from the previous month. It remained above the 50% glory line for 18 months, and the manufacturing sector was in the expansion range. Japan’s economic recovery is relatively weak. In May, the Japanese manufacturing PMI rose by 0.5 percentage points to 49.9% from the previous month, and it was in a contraction interval for two consecutive months. The European economy performed well. In May, the manufacturing PMI of the Eurozone was 52.2%. Although it fell 1.2 percentage points from the previous month, it is still above the line of prosperity and stagnation. However, the economy of the Eurozone is hard to improve significantly in the short term.
Emerging economies are in a state of differentiation and overall weakness. The overall performance of the Indian economy was good. In May, India’s manufacturing PMI was 51.4%, up 0.1 percentage point from the previous month. It was in the expansion zone for 7 consecutive months. At the same time, India’s industrial production index and total export growth rate showed a significant rebound. situation. The Russian economy continued to recover. In May, the Russian manufacturing PMI was 48.9%. Although it was below the glory line, it rebounded for two consecutive months, and the industrial production index growth rate is also accelerating, indicating that Russia's industry is on the rise. South Africa's economy performed poorly. In May, South Africa's PMI fell by 2.0 percentage points from the previous month to 44.0%, not only below the line of glory but also the lowest point since August 2011, and South Africa's business confidence index and consumer confidence. The index is also in a downward trend, indicating that economic activity is in a contraction. Brazil's economy performed in general. In May, Brazil's manufacturing PMI fell by 0.5 percentage points from the previous month to 48.8%. It has been falling for two consecutive months and the overall economic prosperity is not high.
According to the judgment of the economic growth trend of major trading partners, the export growth rate in the second half of 2014 has been slowing down. The cumulative growth rate of export delivery value is expected to be around 4.5%, but considering the real effective exchange rate fluctuation of the RMB and the country's introduction of stable foreign trade. The influence of policies and other factors does not rule out the export growth rate of more than 6% in individual months.
Investment growth continues to decline
From the perspective of industrial investment and manufacturing investment, the growth rate has slowed down noticeably and has a greater impact on industrial production. From January to May, the growth rate of industrial investment has dropped for two consecutive months, down 2.4 percentage points over the same period of last year, accounting for 41.3% of fixed assets investment, down 1.1 percentage points from the same period last year. Among them, the growth rate of manufacturing investment fell by 1.0 percentage point from the first quarter, and fell sharply by 3.6 percentage points from the same period last year. From the long-term trend, the overall growth rate of industrial investment slowed down year by year. From 2011 to 2013, it was in the growth range of 26%, 22% and 18%, respectively, with an average annual decline of about 4 percentage points. In 2014, it fell to around 14%. Interval.
From the perspective of real estate investment, from January to May, the national real estate development investment increased by 14.7% year-on-year, and the growth rate dropped by 2.1 percentage points from the first quarter. Considering the continuous negative growth of land acquisition area of ​​real estate development enterprises and the continuous advancement of urbanization in the long-term, it is expected that the growth rate of real estate investment will remain at a medium-speed level of around 16% in the future.
From the perspective of infrastructure investment, from January to May, the national railway transportation industry completed fixed assets investment of 145.9 billion yuan, an increase of 8.3% year-on-year. The growth rate dropped by 7.6 percentage points from the first quarter and 16.2 percentage points from the same period of last year. However, at the end of April this year, China Railway Corporation adjusted the annual railway investment plan for the third time. The total investment amount was raised to 800 billion yuan, second only to the historical peak of 842.65 billion yuan in 2010. The new project is also planned from the beginning of the year. Soaring to 64, it is expected that railway investment will accelerate in the second half of the year.
From the perspective of credit support for investment, from January to May, the total amount of social financing was 8.6 trillion yuan, compared with 9.1 trillion yuan in the same period last year. The contraction of the total amount of social financing indicates that actual investment is difficult to increase significantly. At the same time, considering that the nominal investment rate of industrial investment in China (industrial investment accounted for 86.3% of industrial added value) in 2013, not only far exceeds the United States (about 12%) and Japan (about 17%), and since the beginning of this century It has maintained a rapid upward trend for 13 years. Therefore, whether from the international comparison or from its own development, with the continuous advancement of the economic restructuring process, the growth rate of investment will inevitably fall.
Based on the above analysis, industrial investment in the second half of 2014 has shown a downward trend in the overall decline. It is expected that the industrial investment growth rate will be around 13.5% in the second half of the year.
Consumption will show a slight increase
In the first five months of this year, the total retail sales of China's social consumer goods increased by 0.1 percentage points year-on-year compared with the first quarter. It has continued to rise for three consecutive months, but decreased by 0.5 percentage points compared with the same period of last year. Although the growth rate of household appliances and building materials consumption has slowed down due to the negative growth in sales area and sales of commercial housing, the proportion of large-scale automobile and petroleum products has been stable, and the growth rate of retail sales in emerging fields such as communication equipment has gradually increased. accelerate. Although the national real estate regulation and control will not relax in the short term, considering that the effect of China's urban development dividend will gradually appear, the chasing power of the rich resources of the central city still exists, so it is difficult for real estate and related consumption to fall to freezing point in the short term. It is expected that the growth rate of consumption in the second half of 2014 may show a steady trend as a whole, with a cumulative growth rate of around 12.5%.
Structural energy conservation and emission reduction will become increasingly prominent
In the first half of the year, China adopted various measures to promote structural energy conservation. The first is to further promote the elimination of backward production capacity. In early May, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued the task of eliminating backward and excess capacity in 2014. The steel industry eliminated more than 1.7 million tons of cement and the cement industry exceeded 8.5 million tons. The workload of other industries also has a larger margin than last year. increase. The second is to increase the concentration of the industry. In May, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued the “Notice on Doing a Good Job in Optimizing the Merger and Reorganization of the Market Environment†to promote cross-regional mergers and acquisitions, resolve the overcapacity of the industry's production capacity, and adjust and optimize the industry. Structure, improve development quality and efficiency. The third is to speed up the optimization of the energy structure. Recently, the State Council encouraged social capital to participate in major hydropower, wind power, photovoltaic power generation projects, etc. China and Nigeria further expanded cooperation in hydropower and energy. China and Russia upgraded strategic partnerships and promoted oil, nuclear, and power cooperation. China Power Construction signed with Russian hydropower. Project cooperation agreements, etc., which indicates that China's industrial energy structure will be further optimized in the future.
E suggestion
Focus on financial policy and technology research and development, accelerate standard setting and tax reform
Develop a more flexible monetary and financial policy
In view of the unfavorable situation of industrial enterprises going to high production capacity pressure and weak export kinetic energy, on the one hand, it is possible to achieve a limited degree by appropriately reducing the deposit reserve ratio to meet market liquidity demand through targeted fine-tuning monetary policy. Conducive to the structural monetary easing policy of the real economy, further optimize the credit structure, reduce the financing costs of industrial enterprises, and reduce the financial burden of industrial enterprises. On the other hand, in response to the exchange rate policy, under the control of maintaining the stable and declining exchange rate of the RMB exchange rate in the early period, we will increase policies on financial support for foreign trade enterprises to stabilize exports.
Promote core common technology research and development
First, accelerate the research and development of core common technologies for energy conservation and emission reduction. Intensify the joint research of production, education and research, focusing on the core technologies of energy conservation and emission reduction in six high-energy-consuming industries, focusing on breakthroughs in core technologies such as direct reduction iron, sintering flue gas desulfurization, denitrification and dedusting integration, and industrial waste heat and residual pressure utilization; for boilers, motors, General-purpose energy-using products such as internal combustion engines, focusing on breakthroughs in key technologies such as ultra-efficient motors and motor control systems, rare earth permanent magnet iron-free motors. The second is to promote the industrialization of core common technologies for energy conservation and emission reduction. Screening a number of major technological achievements with remarkable energy-saving and emission-reducing effects and good industrialization prospects, establishing industrialized pilot demonstration areas, improving the research and development, manufacturing, system integration and industrialization capabilities of key products or core technologies, and supporting a number of R&D capabilities and markets. Enterprises with high occupancy rate; timely release new promotion catalogues of energy-saving products such as automobiles, lighting, motors, etc., and implement energy efficiency leader system.
Accelerate standard setting and tax reform
First, establish and improve the technical standards system for energy conservation and emission reduction. Taking the opportunity of implementing the “100 Energy Efficiency Standards Promotion Projectâ€, we will accelerate the revision and revision of important energy conservation standards, and at the same time formulate and revise a number of key industry pollutant discharge standards. Through standard implementation, it will improve the efficiency of new projects, and provide important support for eliminating backward production capacity, promoting high-efficiency energy-saving products, promoting energy-saving technology, and improving energy management. The second is to speed up the reform of environmental protection fees. By levying environmental taxes, enterprises are forced to incorporate the eco-environmental costs that should be internalized into the product cost accounting system, so that their product costs can truly reflect the resource and environmental costs. Under the influence of market competition mechanism, they are forced to use energy. Enterprises increase their investment in technology, develop and utilize advanced clean production technologies, eliminate backward production capacity, and ultimately achieve the goal of energy conservation and emission reduction.
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