The automation technology revolution is blocking China's manufacturing

A clothing technology company in Georgia, USA, is about to launch "robot tailoring." It is said that this technological innovation in the post-financial crisis era can completely change the fate of "Made in the United States" and its cost is lower, so that it can defeat "Made in China." The United States can thus reverse the embarrassment of importing clothing from China, Vietnam and other places with a deficit of 100 billion U.S. dollars per year. The computer-controlled automatic sewing machine can replace the manual, “one stitch and one thread” sewing the designed clothes, and the production line will not see people. This represents the main direction of the US “re-industrialization” after the financial crisis. Some call it the "automation revolution" or the "robot revolution." The clothing company founder Steve Dickson said, "Automated machines can bring the production of mobile phones, computers and television back to the United States." "Washington Post" commented that the development of robots has now entered the stage of multi-application, including the use of medical surgery and manufacturing, "because robots do not need to sleep, vacation, distraction, and will not ask for a raise, the robot will eventually Cheaper than labor costs." They further predicted that this new industrial revolution, driven by artificial intelligence, robotics and digital manufacturing, allowed American companies to set up stores and create products on the spot. "American robots can soon compete directly with Chinese workers." This is not good news for Chinese companies that are already caught in the “low-profit trap” of rising wage costs, rising Raw Material prices, and shrinking export orders. People can compete with others, they can rely on hard work and hard work, and they can earn less and do more; they can compete with machines, and these advantages will no longer exist. Some people have raised the question: Will robots kill Chinese manufacturing? It is one of the methods of the US "re-industrialization" strategy to contain "man- made" and "robot" to defeat "people". After the outbreak of the international financial crisis, President Obama and many American entrepreneurs are calling for “returning to manufacturing” and claiming that the next 20 years will be to rebuild the global manufacturing competition through the development of high-end manufacturing. The transformation of the United States from "de-industrialization" to "re-industrialization" is not simply a return to "Made in the United States," but to seize a new round of high-tech and industrial competition. After the financial crisis, Americans have realized that the long-term "outsourcing" policy has led to the hollowing out of domestic industries and caused many social ills. Yang Jianwen, a researcher at the Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences, believes that developed countries have finally figured out that although high-tech and finance can make money, they provide limited jobs and high thresholds. Therefore, the middle and lower levels of society are hard to benefit from economic development. The gap is getting bigger and bigger, and the unemployment rate is high, causing fierce social conflicts and turbulence. For developing countries, the global division of labor of “outsourcing” has gradually revealed its drawbacks. Although long-term dependence on cheap labor production has created a "world factory", the mode of low-wage operation has been unable to go on, the gap between the rich and the poor has widened, and social contradictions have become prominent. The "outsourcing" model has simultaneously intensified internal contradictions between developed and developing countries, and raising income has become a common aspiration of people in all countries. However, subject to the constraints of labor costs, it is obviously impossible for developed countries to regain those “low-margin manufacturing”. They must continue to “go to the high-end” and through the subversive technological innovations, the traditional manufacturing industries that are lost. Grab it back." Yang Jianwen said that the 're-industrialization' of developed countries is achieved by seizing the international market. Through political, economic, diplomatic, military, and trade means, the combination of punches and the focus is on the market share, thus driving domestic manufacturers to reproduce and Expanding reproduction will lead to an increase in employment rate and a slowdown in social conflicts. Under the influence of the European debt crisis, EU member states are also agreeing on "re-industrialization" under the urgent situation. European Commission Vice-President Tagani recently said that Europe is facing a serious economic crisis and will turn this crisis into an opportunity. It is necessary to revitalize European industry, because industry is a major contributor to the real economy. The European Commission has thus proposed the "new industrial revolution" concept, emphasizing technological innovation, structural reform, changing the hydrocarbon-based energy structure, more effective and Sustainable use of resources, while vigorously promoting new production methods including robots, digital technology, advanced materials, renewable energy and other emerging industries. "This will create a containment of China's manufacturing transformation and upgrading. Chi Fulin, executive director of the China (Hainan) Reform and Development Research Institute, said at the Boao Forum for Asia, that countries such as Europe and the United States are re-establishing trade barriers through "re-industrialization" and adopting carbon taxes, labor standards, and society. Responsibility and other rules regain the dominance of international industry competition. He believes that before the developed countries seized high-end manufacturing, and later emerging countries to undertake the transfer of low-end manufacturing, the long-term dependence of “Made in China” relied on the comparative advantage. According to statistics, the average wage of manufacturing workers is an example. Currently, Vietnam is about 1,000 yuan per month, India is about 600 yuan, and the eastern coast of China has reached 2,500 yuan to 3,000 yuan. The case is that China was once the largest global manufacturing base of the Nike brand, producing 40% of Nike shoes, but currently Vietnam has surpassed China to become Nike's largest production base. Armed with "robots" to make China's counter-boats, not to enter or retreat. The foundry company Foxconn has announced that it will launch 1 million industrial robots within three years. The purpose is to control costs. They even invested in the Robotics Industrial Park in Jincheng, Shanxi, and simply produced their own industrial robots. Since the “jumping” incident, the company has repeatedly raised the salary of front-line employees and expanded the factory in the inland provinces. Foxconn employs more than 1 million workers in the Mainland, and the number of industrial robots will be no less than workers in the future. According to analysis, Foxconn currently uses the "low-end robot" robot arm, each costing more than 100,000 yuan. The robotic arm can work continuously for 24 hours, and the working time is three times that of ordinary workers. According to the annual salary of Foxconn ordinary workers, which is about 30,000 to 40,000 yuan, the cost of the robot arm is equivalent to the cost of hiring three ordinary workers for one year. In this way, the cost can be recovered in one year, and then profits can be generated. According to industry insiders, the rising wages of China’s labor force have pushed up the cost of “Made in China”, and if the “Robot Plan” is implemented successfully, it may enable Foxconn to “break through” "Ceiling of artificial demand" to achieve "globalization strategy". Foxconn It is clear that the company has invested 12 billion U.S. dollars to build factories in Brazil, and has begun to deploy in Vietnam and India. Guo Taiming, who has been widely criticized for its harsh management, plans to use the "robot strategy" to completely change the image of Foxconn. He said, " We want people to be no longer controlled by machines, but people to control the machine, handing the monotonous and repetitive work to the robot and freeing the employees. Indeed, for the assembly and processing of Apple smartphones and tablets, intelligent robots can do better than humans in polishing, polishing, laser marking, welding, spraying, etc. They are also more suitable for Work in a dangerous environment such as flammable or explosive. This should be a general trend of industrial upgrading. "To become a manufacturing kingdom, China's success or failure is to turn the demographic dividend into a mental dividend. "Guo Taiming publicly stated that with the use of robots, manpower will be transferred to higher added value, and younger employees who do not like to work dry after 80s and 90s will learn to manipulate robot software, applications and maintenance, and Become an application engineer and software engineer for robots. It seems that the speed of arming "Made in China" with robots is not slower than that of the US and Europe. In 2008, labor costs rose, industrial robots began to emerge in the manufacturing process, and China sold 7500 units in that year. The number is one-third of the total sales in the previous 24 years. After that, the application of robots has expanded rapidly. According to the rough statistics of China Machinery Industry Federation, in 2010, China imported 23,400 robots, an increase of 130%; in 2011, imported robots 38,000. Taiwan, a year-on-year increase of 62%. According to Luo Baihui, secretary general of the International Mold Suppliers Association, the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" period will be a key turning point in the development of China's industrial robot industry. There is also a blowout development in the market demand, and the demand will be 15 per year. The speed of %~20% is increasing. Currently, robots are mainly used in automobile manufacturing. In the future, in the manufacturing of blanks (stamping, die-casting, forging, etc.), machining, welding, heat treatment, surface coating, loading and unloading, assembly, inspection and warehouse stacking, robots will be widely used as a standard equipment. Application, and will become the “new force” of China's industrial automation technology and application. Many international giants of industrial robots, such as KUKA, ABB, FANUC, etc., now regard the Chinese market as “decisive victory”. The future battlefield. Although the number of industrial robots in the manufacturing sector in China is only tens of thousands, which is much less than in Europe and the United States, "China's potential is too great," said Dr. Gu Chunyuan, head of ABB's robotics business in China. China will certainly be the number one in the world in terms of installed capacity. This is the consensus in the industry. Local robot companies are not far behind. The development of robots in Shenyang and Xi'an is fast, and the application market in the Pearl River Delta region is growing most rapidly. According to statistics, there are only 63 robot companies in Shenzhen Robotics Association. In 2011, the output value reached 16 billion yuan. The annual growth rate is 50% to 60%. In order to solve the problem of too much investment in the early stage of the use of robots, the local employs flexible “employment” marketing, and enterprises can “pay for the money first”. The robot was "fried". In April this year, 36 enterprises, universities, research and investment institutions in Shenzhen jointly established the "Robots, Industry, Education and Research Alliance". Bi Yalei, secretary general of the Shenzhen Robotics Association, said that "every family has robots." The era of robots in factories and factories will soon come, and there are not many backbone enterprises in China's industrial robot enterprises with large scale and brand ring. We look forward to the emergence of "Huawei" in the robot field. If the machine tool is "industrial" "Mother machine", the robot is "the machine tool that has a long brain." A senior person in the machine tool industry said that the Chinese must understand that "Made in China" must compete with countries such as the US, Europe and Japan, and they cannot use other people's industrial equipment. To make China's manufacturing low-value-added, "in order to prevent being killed by the opponent's robot, we must arm ourselves with our own robots." “High-end manufacturing” needs to be raised by the local market. If robots replace people, where do people go? In fact, the US “re-industrialization” strategy has not improved employment significantly in the past three years. In the past two years, even if corporate profits rebounded quickly, the unemployment rate remained at 9%, only 1% lower than the worst 2009. In a report on "Return of Global Manufacturing to the Homeland: Myths and Realities," American researchers said that even if "re-industrialization" advances rapidly, the cost advantage of Chinese manufacturing will be rapidly lost, and it will not bring more Americans. Employment, because these direct production jobs only need robots to complete. Economist Li Caiyuan believes that the application of various new technologies and new technologies after the financial crisis will definitely eliminate some old jobs and old jobs in the short term, but at the same time will bring new employment opportunities. “According to the multiplier effect of the value chain, a high-end manufacturing position can usually drive more than three middle and low-end positions. For example, around robot production, there will be multiple follow-up positions such as vocational training, personnel training, system management and production services. He said that in the long run, the formation of an emerging industrial chain will not really reduce the employment space of people. For example, before the rise of the Internet and the information industry, it is difficult to imagine that you can shop or shop on a website like “Taobao” while sitting at home. It is hard to imagine that the express logistics industry will undergo earth-shaking changes. It can be said that the industrialization process itself is a process of “machine replacement”. When the machine helps humans complete many low-end, cumbersome and repetitive boring tasks, human beings have more time and energy to engage in learning, innovation, and Research, communication and art activities. In Li Caiyuan's view, the evolution of human beings from the "physical age" to the "material power era" to the "intellectual age" is irreversible, and this is the general trend of continuous escalation of civilization. At present, the most important concern is that after three years of adjustments in the developed countries of the United States and Europe, the financial bubble has been basically squeezed out. We are vigorously developing science and technology and emerging industries. Once they take the lead in building the “emerging industry chain”, “China is afraid To be a low-end wage earner." The US and European "re-industrialization" and the application of intelligent robots have already signaled that a new round of technological revolution is on the eve of the big outbreak. Jia Genliang, a professor at the School of Economics of Renmin University of China, believes that the most obvious change brought about by this technological revolution is that “there is almost no visible figure in the direct production field. It will basically implement digital automatic production, based on processing and manufacturing. The labor-intensive industry will likely become a relic of history.” In the historical moment of this great transformation, if China as a “world factory” cannot catch up, its economic rise process is likely to be interrupted. The “high-wage countries” that have occupied high-tech and high-end industries will still defeat the “low-wage countries” with backward technology, just as the British used textile machines to defeat Chinese and Indian hand-made fabrics. In history, countries that rely on export resources and cheap labor cannot finally develop. Jia Genliang believes that China must make up its mind to independently research and develop core and key technologies, and cannot hope to rely on others to make use of the huge domestic market and make it a soil for China's independent technology and industry to incubate. "Why can the United States surpass the United Kingdom at the end of the 19th century? It is not relying on traditional industries, nor on foreign markets, but on the strategic emerging technologies of the time, relying on strict protection of the domestic market and the exclusive development of the domestic market." He said, "Based on this, we must get rid of the current global value chain control of multinational companies, and build a national industrial value chain by establishing independent and high-end links in the industrial chain." Any form of productivity improvement requires the corresponding increase in consumption power to support. The old Henry Ford of the United States created the production line for the T-car, but if he did not pay the workers double the wages, no one could afford his car. This is the strategic significance of consumption upgrades and the local market. "The global division of labor before the financial crisis is malformed. When it comes to China, it is subsidized by rural production, and urban production subsidies are foreigners." Li Caiyuan said that this makes the Chinese market seem big. In fact, the income of the people is too low, and the market is real. The demand is seriously insufficient. Coupled with the excessive market opening and the dependence on technology, the local industrial value chain has been unable to form. Today, the “re-industrialization” strategy of the United States and Europe itself means “closing the door to foster and nurture its own emerging industries.” Various types of market barriers and trade protectionism are inevitable, and the high-tech of the United States and Europe. It is very difficult to get it, and China should have a clear understanding of this. Li Caiyuan believes that China must firmly follow the "endogenous cycle", expand the local market, strengthen local enterprises, and, like the United States of the same year, rely on China's national income multiplication and consumption upgrades to nurture and feed China's own high-end manufacturing. The industrial chain, so that the Chinese economy can circulate upwards and endlessly. He admits that China's current transformation is very difficult. "We have a large population, poor technology, weak currency, large bubbles, and many unfavorable factors, but the power is also the most", because no one in China is willing to continue to "take 800 million pants for aircraft." "".

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