Energy conference re-injects "cardiotonic agent" for shale gas photovoltaic

The two-day National Energy Work Conference ended on the 8th, officially setting the tone for the 2013 energy work. This year, the national energy system will focus on eight aspects of work. Among them, we must vigorously develop unconventional oil and gas resources such as shale gas and coalbed methane, vigorously develop new energy and renewable energy, actively develop hydropower, coordinate development of wind power, and vigorously develop distribution. Photovoltaic power generation, with 21 million kilowatts of hydropower installed, 18 million kilowatts of wind power installed, and 10 million kilowatts of photovoltaic power generation.

Thanks to favorable policies, the shale gas concept stocks collectively strengthened yesterday, and Haimo Technology once touched the daily limit. At the close, Donghua Energy rose 9.5%, and Yongtai Energy and Superstar Technology rose more than 3%.

The shale gas has the momentum of "the world"

The National Energy Work Conference promoted shale gas and proposed that the national energy system in 2013 should vigorously develop unconventional oil and gas resources such as shale gas and coalbed methane, and vigorously develop distributed photovoltaic power generation.

In fact, since last year, the development of shale gas and coalbed methane in China has attracted much attention. Among them, the bidding for shale gas has been carried out for two rounds. The industrial development has entered the fast lane and broke the monopoly market of the four major oil companies. The Nanfang Daily reporter was informed that the second round of shale gas tenders held recently, all the top bidders in the 19 tendering blocks, all of which are non-traditional oil companies, are in line with the four major oil companies that have considerable resources. The actual situation of shale gas blocks or overlapping blocks of multiple minerals (70%-80% of shale gas reserves are distributed in conventional oil and gas mining rights blocks), and also meets the North American market for shale gas exploration and exploitation. Fair competition model. Among them, the central coal and power companies as well as local energy groups and shale gas platform companies are mostly; private enterprises are relatively few.

Behind the vigorous promotion of shale gas is the reality of a sharp increase in demand for natural gas. At present, the gas consumption of natural gas has increased to about 150 billion cubic meters. Everbright Securities analyst Zhang Yang said that as natural gas supply could not keep up with demand, the proportion of domestic natural gas imports to apparent consumption has risen to 27% in 2012, and there is a growing problem of external dependence. Due to the success of the development of unconventional gas such as shale gas, the world is entering the heyday of the rapid development of natural gas, and the momentum of “gassing the world” is a medium-scale fossil energy revolution.

However, Ma Jialu, an expert at China National Petroleum Corporation's consulting center, expressed concern about the development of shale gas. He said that we have not even done a good job in the early stage of exploration. The shale gas reserves in China are now calculated by the probabilistic volume method. Various parameters used such as area, thickness, specific gravity, gas content, and the like. Due to uncertainty, the results can only be obtained with a 50% probability. In the United States, for example, it was said that its resources were 24 trillion yuan, and the 2012 report was 16.34 trillion. Why is it shrinking? 24 trillion is the result of 50% probability calculation. After a large number of wells, it is found that the real technical recoverable reserves are less than the calculated. Poland first said that the amount of resources was 5.8 trillion squares. Exxon knew the specific thickness and where it was based on the well. It was re-estimated that only 0.85 trillion yuan was found, so Exxon withdrew from Poland.

He also reminded that the shale gas “Twelfth Five-Year Plan” proposed that the output in 2015 will reach 6.5 billion cubic meters, and in 2020, it will reach 6 million to 1000 trillion cubic meters. With such great strength, it is certainly impossible to take the conventional roads for scientific research. It is time to step up efforts to tackle the problem or introduce foreign technology.

Last year, the government spent 8.6 billion yuan to stimulate renewable energy.

In addition to pushing shale gas, the National Energy Work Conference proposed to vigorously develop new and renewable energy sources, actively develop hydropower, coordinate the development of wind power, and vigorously develop distributed photovoltaic power generation. In the whole year, hydropower installed capacity was 21 million kilowatts, wind power installed capacity was 18 million kilowatts, and photovoltaic power generation installed capacity was 10 million kilowatts.

Summarizing China's energy development over the past five years, China has become the world's number one energy producer in five years. Power installed capacity increased from 720 million kilowatts to 1.14 billion kilowatts; hydropower installed capacity of 100 million kilowatts, reaching 249 million kilowatts, ranking first in the world; wind power installed capacity increased from 5 million kilowatts to 63 million kilowatts, becoming the world's largest wind power country; The installed capacity of power generation has increased from 7 to 10,000 kilowatts; nuclear power is under construction with 30 units and 32.73 million kilowatts, ranking first in the world.

Among them, the newly installed capacity of photovoltaic power generation is the most dazzling. The “12th Five-Year Plan” of the new energy that was previously adopted is proposed to reach the end of 2015, with a PV installed target of 21 million kilowatts. Since then, the news of the target revision has been reported one after another. At this energy work meeting, it is still a surprise to the industry to propose an annual increase of 10 million kilowatts.

It is worth noting that in 2011, China's PV installed capacity reached 3 million kilowatts. In 2012, the installed capacity of photovoltaic power generation increased to 7 million kilowatts. In 2013, it proposed to add 10 million kilowatts of new photovoltaic power generation capacity, which is 2.5 new installed capacity in 2012. Times. This is particularly important in the context of China's PV industry being affected by overseas markets.

However, it is not difficult to see from the comparison that the new hydropower installed target in 2013 is basically the same as the average of the past five years, and the wind power, especially the new installed capacity of photovoltaics, is greatly accelerated. According to the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan for Solar Power Development" announced by the National Energy Administration in September last year ("Planning"), "by the end of 2015, the installed capacity of solar power will reach 21 million kilowatts or more." With a goal of 10 million kilowatts, "21 million kilowatts" is expected to break through easily.

It is worth mentioning that the Ministry of Finance has leveraged financial subsidies to incite new fulcrums for the development of renewable energy. In 2012, the renewable energy tariff additional subsidy funds totaled 8.598 billion yuan, of which wind power, solar power and biomass power generation subsidies were 5.851 billion yuan, 723 million yuan and 2.023 billion yuan. Inner Mongolia received the most subsidies, followed by Shandong and Jiangsu.

New mechanism for refined oil pricing is expected to show up

For the much-respected energy price reform, the meeting proposed that the national energy system should “not lose the opportunity to promote energy system reform”, “plan a new task for energy development reform”, and promote energy production and consumption revolution. In-depth study on deepening the top-level design and overall planning of the energy system reform, clarifying the overall plan, roadmap and timetable for reform, and actively carrying out pilot demonstrations.

Looking forward to 2013, marketization will become the key to traditional energy development. At present, the coal-fired price integration policy has completely ended the history of the dual-track coal price system. Its attention does not seem to be so high, but it may affect far-reaching price reforms.

In addition, the reform plan also emphasizes the continued implementation of the coal-fired electricity price linkage mechanism. When the price fluctuation of thermal coal exceeds 5%, the annual electricity supply price is adjusted accordingly, and the proportion of fluctuations in coal price fluctuations by power companies is adjusted from 30% to 10%. Wang Tao, chief economist of UBS Securities, said that this is an important step toward the reform direction established by the “18th National Congress” to “play more fundamentally the role of the market in allocating resources”.

As for the long-awaited improvement of the refined oil pricing mechanism, this year, the clue that the director of the National Development and Reform Commission, Zhang Ping, recently emphasized at the National Development and Reform Work Conference, steadily promoted the focus on resource products. The price reform, improve the formation mechanism of refined oil prices, implement the integration of key thermal coal and market coal prices, promote the reform of natural gas prices, and improve the residential ladder price policy. In this regard, observers believe that the new refined oil pricing mechanism is expected to be launched at the first price adjustment in 2013.

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