Abstract The National Development and Reform Commission announced that due to the rapid growth of steel production in the first quarter and the sharp increase in inventories, the steel market situation in the second quarter was not optimistic. At the same time, due to the slow recovery of the international economy, international trade friction and trade protection have increased significantly, China's steel products...
The National Development and Reform Commission issued a notice saying that due to the rapid growth of steel production in the first quarter and the sharp increase in inventories, the steel market situation in the second quarter was not optimistic. At the same time, due to the slow recovery of the international economy, international trade friction and trade protection have increased significantly, and the difficulty of exporting China's steel products will further increase. The announcement said that China's promotion of new urbanization is conducive to boosting market confidence. At the same time, industries such as automobiles and home appliances are expected to maintain a small growth this year, and the fundamentals of steel demand growth are still improving. However, due to tight capital, energy conservation and emission reduction and environmental protection, the output growth in the first half of the year may be lower than the first quarter. Due to the rapid growth of steel production in the first quarter and the sharp increase in inventories, the steel market situation in the second quarter is not optimistic.
Since the beginning of this year, due to the slow recovery of the international economy, international trade friction and trade protection have increased significantly. This year, the United States, the United States, Australia, Canada, Malaysia, Thailand, India and other countries and regions have launched anti-dumping, countervailing investigations and trade security measures on China's steel products, involving more than 10 cases. With the increase of trade friction, the difficulty of exporting China's steel products will further increase.
In addition, with the acceleration of the reform of resources, energy prices and fiscal and taxation, the investment and operating costs of enterprises in energy conservation and environmental protection are increasing, and the cost is gradually increasing. On February 20 this year, the average freight rate per ton of railway freight was increased by 1.5 points, affecting more than 20 billion yuan in the steel industry. At the same time, corporate financing costs increased, and the financial expenses of large and medium-sized steel companies increased by 14.35% from January to February.
It is worth noting that the price of raw materials such as iron ore is not synchronized with the price of steel, which is the main factor affecting the efficiency of steel enterprises. At the end of March, the CIF price of imported iron ore in China rose to US$140.35/ton, which was 61.9% higher than the lowest point at the end of September last year. At the same time, metallurgical coke and scrap prices are also rising. Considering the lag of high-cost raw material cost carry-over, the high mining price in the first quarter of this year will increase the cost pressure in the later period. It is expected that the second quarter will continue to be low-profit.
Overall, the overall market environment for the steel industry this year will be better than last year. With the arrival of the traditional demand peak season in the second quarter, the steel market demand will increase, but due to the large scale of production capacity and high production costs, it is difficult for the steel companies to improve their operations.
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