In October, the steel market continued to experience a supply surplus, leading to a slight decline in steel prices. As the month progressed, the market gradually moved into the off-season for steel consumption, with both demand and production expected to decrease. This shift is likely to keep the market in a weakly balanced state, resulting in relatively stable steel prices.
1. **Domestic Steel Prices Declined Slightly**
At the end of October, the China Steel Price Index (CSPI) stood at 99.34 points, down 1.23 points (1.22%) from the previous period and 6.05 points (5.74%) compared to the same period last year. This marked the first time the index fell below 100 since earlier in the year.
2. **Long Products and Sheet Materials Both Dropped**
The long products index dropped to 101.52 points, a decrease of 1.33 points (1.29%) from the previous month. The sheet index fell to 98.70 points, down 1.25 points (1.25%). Compared to the same period last year, the long products index declined by 8.00 points (7.30%), while the sheet index fell by 4.07 points (3.96%).
3. **Major Steel Products Continued to Decline**
By the end of October, the prices of eight major steel products monitored by the China Iron and Steel Association were all lower than the previous quarter. High-grade steel, rebar, hot-rolled coils, and medium-to-thick plates saw declines of 52, 47, 72, and 57 yuan/ton, respectively. Angle steel, galvanized sheets, and hot-rolled seamless pipes also saw price drops of 48, 25, and 53 yuan/ton. Cold-rolled sheets reversed from an upward trend to a decline, falling by 34 yuan/ton.
4. **Weekly Price Drops Continued**
Since the fourth week of August, the CSPI has been declining for eight consecutive weeks. In early November, prices dipped again in the first week but saw a slight rebound in the second and third weeks.
**Market Analysis of Domestic Steel Price Trends**
Despite a drop in daily crude steel output, overall levels remained high. The National Day holiday further slowed steel demand, contributing to the price decline.
1. **Steel Industry Growth Slowed**
From January to October, fixed asset investment grew by 20.1% year-on-year, though the growth rate slowed slightly. Real estate investment rose by 19.2%, but the pace also slowed. Industrial output increased by 10.3%, and electricity consumption dropped by 4.71% month-on-month. The manufacturing PMI stood at 51.4%, up 0.3% from the previous month, but new orders and export orders declined.
2. **Crude Steel Output Fell Slightly but Remained High**
In October, pig iron, crude steel, and steel output reached 58.75 million, 65.08 million, and 92.81 million tons, respectively, showing year-on-year growth of 7.7%, 9.2%, and 12.3%. Daily crude steel output was 2.0994 million tons, down 3.73% from the previous month. Despite a drop in domestic output, net steel exports increased, but supply-demand imbalances persisted due to seasonal factors.
3. **Imported Iron Ore Prices Rose**
The price of imported iron ore (customs) increased by $2.39/ton or 1.89%, marking the third consecutive month of gains. While other raw material prices like coking coal and scrap fell slightly, the rising cost of imported iron ore provided some support to steel prices.
**International Market Trends**
At the end of October, the CRU International Steel Composite Price Index stood at 166.6 points, down 1.6 points (0.9%) from the previous month and 4.0 points (2.3%) from the same period last year.
1. **Long Products and Sheet Prices Fell**
The CRU long products index dropped to 182.2 points, down 1.3 points (0.7%) from the previous month. The sheet index fell to 159.5 points, down 1.7 points (1.0%). Compared to the same period last year, the long products index fell 6.8 points (3.6%), while the sheet index dropped 1.9 points (1.2%).
2. **Regional Price Movements**
- **North America**: The CRU North American steel price index rose 2.3 points (1.4%) to 172.2 points. U.S. manufacturing PMI improved, but steel prices in the Midwest showed a narrowing decline.
- **Europe**: The CRU European steel price index fell 5.1 points (3.1%) to 157.7 points. Demand varied across countries, with some seeing improvements and others declines.
- **Asia**: The CRU Asian steel price index dropped 1.1 points (0.7%) to 168.7 points. Japan’s PMI rose, but export order indices declined.
**Future Outlook**
With the economy showing signs of stability, steel demand continues to grow, and social inventories are decreasing. Prices are expected to remain relatively stable in the coming months.
1. **Economic Growth Drives Steel Demand**
The national economy has shown steady growth, supported by policy measures aimed at structural adjustment. Industrial electricity use and railway freight have seen positive growth, indicating strong underlying demand for steel.
2. **Seasonal Demand Slowdown and Inventory Reduction**
As winter approaches, steel demand is expected to slow, and inventories will continue to fall. With the pressure of year-end fund recovery, stock levels are likely to decrease further.
3. **Weak Equilibrium Likely to Continue**
Although crude steel output has declined, it remains at a high level. The market is expected to stay in a weak balance, making sharp price increases unlikely.
**Key Issues to Watch**
- **Rising Import Iron Ore Prices**: The average price of imported iron ore reached $128.57/ton in October, the highest in six months. This could impact steel mill costs in the coming months.
- **Declining Export Prices**: China’s steel export prices have fallen, and international demand is expected to weaken further.
- **Persistent Overcapacity**: Government policies aim to address overcapacity, but the issue remains challenging in the short term. Environmental regulations in key regions are also expected to affect the market.
Intelligent Vertical Water Meter
Intelligent Vertical Water Meter,Intelligent Ic Water Meter,Ic Woltman Water Meter,Prepaid Water Meter Case
Shandong xuheng instrument co., ltd , https://www.sdxuhengmeter.com