**Abstract**
On July 18, as the investigation into the anti-dumping measures was nearing its one-year mark, the Ministry of Commerce finally released the preliminary ruling on the anti-dumping investigation targeting solar-grade polysilicon from the United States and South Korea. The announcement stated that temporary anti-dumping duties would be imposed in the form of cash deposits on imports of the product from these two countries. The preliminary determination revealed a dumping margin ranging from 53.3% to 57% for U.S. imports, while South Korean imports faced margins between 2.4% and 48.7%.
However, the European Union, another key player in the same product market, was notably absent from this initial ruling. On November 1, 2012, China officially launched a “double-reverse†investigation into EU solar-grade polysilicon, which was later merged with the earlier investigation into U.S. and South Korean imports that had been initiated on July 20 of the same year.
According to sources close to the case, the merger of investigations does not imply a unified preliminary ruling. Legally, the cases remain separate, with the EU’s filing occurring over three months after the U.S. and South Korea. Despite this, the decision to merge was made to improve efficiency, as the injury assessment for Chinese enterprises is considered similar across all cases. Under the standard procedure, each case can last up to 18 months, including a possible six-month extension if necessary.
Some industry experts, however, believe that even if the full investigations are not completed, the damage assessment to the Chinese industry must be finalized. The attention surrounding China’s preliminary findings on EU polysilicon is closely linked to the ongoing trade dispute between China and the EU—the EU’s “double-reverse†investigation against China’s photovoltaic sector.
Recently, a German media outlet reported that China and Germany had reached an agreement where China would not impose anti-dumping duties on EU polysilicon. Given that Germany is the largest exporter of polysilicon to China, any such duty would severely impact its industry. According to data from the Silicon Industry Branch of the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association, Germany, the U.S., and South Korea account for 60%, 55%, and 50% of polysilicon exports to China, respectively. In the broader photovoltaics case, Germany has aligned itself with China, avoiding tariffs and offering favorable conditions for negotiations.
While the Chinese Ministry of Commerce has not officially responded to these reports, industry insiders suggest there may be strategic considerations at play. With the photovoltaics case involving significant economic interests, negotiations between both sides are expected to be complex and multifaceted. Some speculate that the EU’s preliminary ruling could serve as a bargaining chip before the final decision.
A few days before the release of the preliminary results, domestic polysilicon companies urged relevant authorities to handle the EU and the U.S./South Korea cases separately. The government reportedly accepted this suggestion, choosing instead to resolve the issue through negotiations rather than immediate action.
On June 4, the EU announced a provisional anti-dumping duty of 11.8% on Chinese photovoltaic products, with the rate potentially rising to 47.6% by August 6 if no resolution is reached. With only 18 days left, the negotiation window is rapidly closing. Both sides remain deadlocked on pricing, with the price difference between China and Europe dropping from 0.15 euros per watt to just 0.05 euros.
“Although it’s only 0.05 euros, this is crucial for Chinese PV companies to maintain their financial stability,†said an industry source. While other terms have already been agreed upon, the price commitment plan is still under discussion. If no major issues arise, the deal is expected to be finalized by August 6.
It is worth noting that the preliminary anti-dumping ruling on U.S. and South Korean polysilicon comes too late for the struggling domestic polysilicon industry. A recent report from the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association showed that in the first half of the year, China’s polysilicon production fell by 23.6% compared to the previous year, with 86% of the 43 operating companies either shut down or running at less than 30% capacity.
Industry analysts believe that while the import restrictions may lead to a short-term rebound in domestic prices, the overall recovery of the industry remains uncertain. Lin Ruhai, a representative from the industry, noted that the current average price of polysilicon in China is around 120,000 yuan per ton, with projections for the second half of the year suggesting prices will stabilize between 150,000 and 160,000 yuan per ton. However, despite this, 90,000 tons of production capacity will remain idle.
While leading companies may see some improvement, profitability remains difficult to achieve. Many smaller firms are expected to exit the market in the coming months.
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