Abstract Monthly summary: Metal prices in May were mainly affected by short positions and the US dollar index, and the nickel was volatile. It is expected that the nickel price will show a trend rebound in June, and the main trading range of the nickel is at 15000-16000 USD/ton. The main driver is, in mid-June...
Monthly summary: Metal prices in May were mainly affected by short positions and the US dollar index, and the nickel was volatile. It is expected that the nickel price will show a trend rebound in June, and the main trading range of the nickel is at 15000-16000 USD/ton. The main drivers are the June China Urbanization Conference and the 19-20th FOMC meeting. January and May nickel price trend
1. May LME nickel price oscillates at a low level
From around $18,800/ton in February, it fell to $15,100/ton at the end of April, and LME nickel fell by nearly 20%. At the beginning of May, on the basis of the end of April, the nickel price fell again to nearly US$500/ton, and then the low level fluctuated. The trading range in May was 14561-15406 USD/ton, and the up-and-down price difference was less than US$1,000/ton.
In May, the macroeconomic operations of major economies in the world were basically stable, the US economy continued to recover steadily, the weak recovery of China's economy remained, and the Eurozone was on the verge of stagnation and recession. There was no significant change in the economic level. In May, the European and American stock markets continued to rise, and the US dollar index showed a strong upward trend.
Throughout May, the metal market was basically in a short-selling position with the US dollar index. A large amount of profit has accumulated, and there are concerns about Chinese companies entering the market to buy goods on the dips. The short position in May has triggered a rebound in metal prices. This situation is particularly evident on the copper. On the other hand, the breakthrough in the US dollar index has brought a big negative to the market.
Corresponding to the low price of nickel, the LME nickel inventories continued to increase in the previous period in May, with a monthly increase of 3,500 tons to a record high of over 180,000 tons, but the increase rate has been significantly eased compared with the previous period.
2. Domestic spot nickel market in May
In May, the LME nickel price fluctuated at a low level, and the number of Jinchuan nickel plate ex-factory price adjustments decreased significantly. The Jinchuan plate was lowered by 3,500 yuan/ton to 14,500 yuan/ton. In the Shanghai market, Jinchuan Nickel traded at 104,300-10,8000 yuan/ton, and Russian nickel traded at 103,300-10,700 yuan/ton, with a range of 3,500 yuan/ton.
At the beginning of the month, Jinchuan Nickel in Shanghai market fell to around 104,500 yuan / ton; followed by LME nickel price rebound, the highest rebound in the month to 108,000 yuan / ton; most of the time from mid-month to the end of the month in the range of 105,000-106,000 yuan / ton. Russian nickel basically maintains the same rhythm as Jinchuan Nickel, and the price difference between the two is always around 1,000 yuan / ton.
According to customs data, China imported 148,300 tons of unwrought nickel in April, and continued to maintain a moderate increase in February. Due to the low base in April last year, there was a large increase year-on-year. In addition, domestic electrolytic nickel production has remained basically stable, and the demand structure of nickel raw materials in downstream stainless steel plants has not changed significantly. In general, the domestic electrolytic nickel market is still relatively abundant.
Second, the operation status of nickel pig iron and laterite nickel ore market in May
On the whole, domestic nickel pig iron prices fluctuated at a low level in LME nickel prices in May. The commissioning and production increase of the rotary kiln nickel pig iron project has increased the market supply of nickel pig iron on the one hand and lowered the overall production cost on the other hand. In the second half of the month, nickel pig iron prices were even weaker as stainless steel mills lowered the bidding price.
At the beginning of May, the domestic laterite nickel ore price followed the LME nickel price, and basically maintained a sideways trend. According to customs data, the import of laterite nickel ore in April was 49.3 million tons, a significant drop from the 55.28 million tons in March, and there was still a considerable increase from last year's 47.94 million tons. In the week of May 17, the inventory of laterite nickel ore in major ports nationwide increased to 21.4 million tons, and fell to around 21 million tons at the end of the month.
Third, the trend of nickel prices in May
After a month of low-level shocks, we are cautiously optimistic about the nickel price in June, that is, there will be a clear trend rebound, and the main trading range of the nickel is expected to be 1,5000-16,000 US dollars / ton. Against the background of a stable macroeconomic operation, we believe that metal prices in June will be driven mainly by the following two factors:
The related dynamics of China's new urbanization and the market's expectations for its development. First, the reality of the weak recovery of China's economy will continue, and this has been recognized by more and more markets. Although the market no longer has expectations for large-scale economic stimulus plans, the specific plans for new urbanization still have expectations for the market, especially in the economic system reform. Reform, although not directly seeing the increase in demand for metals, will bring about a reversal of market risk appetite and encourage high-risk asset prices.
Around the expectations of the Fed's FOMC meeting on June 19-20. The continuous improvement of economic data and the continued rise of the stock market have increased confidence in the US economic outlook. As a result, expectations about the Fed’s adjustment easing policy have begun to heat up. At the same time, the Fed began to use the words to guide the market's expectations of exiting easing. Some people are worried that the Fed may adjust its quantitative scale in the third quarter. We believe that the Fed will not give a clear indication of when to adjust the purchase size at the June meeting, and its position will provide some support to the market.
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