Coal control efforts overwhelming prospects for the coal industry

Since May, coal-containment and coal-control policies or measures have been gradually introduced across the country, making the coal industry meet the policy “ceiling” while facing a demand bottleneck. According to industry insiders, under the multiple pressures of supply and demand reversal, industrial restructuring, and energy conservation and emission reduction, the coal industry is not optimistic about the current or medium-to-long term situation.

The coal control measures “emerged everywhere” and environmental protection rectified a combination of punches. In recent years, a wide range of smog weather in the country has caused public concerns about air pollution. As the culprit of hazy weather, coal consumption is increasingly criticized by the world.

As early as the beginning of this year, the “12th Five-Year Plan for Energy Development” issued by the State Council clearly stated that the implementation of dual control of energy consumption intensity and total consumption will control total energy consumption by 4 billion tons of standard coal by 2015. The amount of 6.15 trillion kWh, energy consumption per unit of GDP decreased by 16% compared with 2010.

Data from the National Bureau of Statistics shows that in 2012, the country’s total energy consumption was 3.62 billion tons of standard coal, an increase of 3.9% over the previous year. Among them, coal consumption increased by 2.5%.

Based on this calculation, in the next three years, China's total coal consumption will face greater pressure. In fact, shortly after the "12th Five-Year Plan for Energy Development" was released, the State Council held a meeting requesting that the total energy consumption control objectives be scientifically disaggregated to all regions and hardened local energy conservation and emission reduction assessments.

According to “steel information”, since May, coal control and coal-restricting measures have been launched throughout the country. Among them, Beijing has the largest control of coal. Zhuang Zhidong, deputy director of the Beijing Municipal Environmental Protection Bureau, clearly stated in an interview with the media that by 2015, the total coal consumption in Beijing will be reduced from the current 23.3 million tons to 15 million tons and further reduced to 10 million tons by 2020.

The Yangtze River Delta region's coal control and coal-restricting operations are also in full swing. According to media reports, Nanjing has also advanced into the ranks of coal-controlling companies, setting a hard lever for coal control. That is, Nanjing will no longer approve new projects to increase coal consumption in the next three years. The total coal consumption in 2015 will be controlled at 32.4 million tons. Within. Just before this, Shanghai, Hangzhou and other places also clearly defined coal control objectives and measures.

While the local coal control campaign frequently “swords”, the National Environmental Protection Agency has also successively introduced environmental protection “combination boxing”. It is understood that following the investigation of coking, steel and non-ferrous metals industries in April, the Ministry of Environmental Protection and the United Nations Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, and the National Energy Administration drafted the Action Plan for Prevention and Control of Atmospheric Pollution.

According to industry insiders, compared with the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan” for the prevention and control of atmospheric pollution in key regions issued last year, the newly drafted action plan will have a higher target and stricter measures.

In addition, in order to reduce the problem of environmental pollution, the Energy Administration recently released the Interim Measures for the Administration of Commodity Coal Quality (Consultation Draft), which imposes restrictions on the import of low-grade coal.

The development of clean energy has become a trend in the coal industry or has formed a permanent impact on coal control, coal intensive targets and measures introduced, making the development of high-quality clean energy has increasingly become the consensus of the industry.

Xu Weiwei, a researcher at the “My Steel Net” Research Center, pointed out that China’s economy has entered a period of rapid development from a period of rapid development, and the growth of coal demand is slowing, but the release of production capacity is accelerating, and imports of coal continue to show dramatic increases. Supply pressure makes the coal industry face the issue of overcapacity. Therefore, in the issue of energy selection, from the energy needs in the past to the current need for high-quality and environmentally friendly energy, it will be the inevitable road for China's energy consumption in the future.

In fact, in the newly drafted “Air Pollution Prevention Action Plan” and implementation details, natural gas has been supported in principle as an alternative resource, and the coal-fired boilers in cities around Beijing, Tianjin, and Hebei will gradually be transformed into gas-fired boilers.

Since May, local governments have frequently used coal-fired boilers and coal-fired boilers have been annihilated. It is understood that the renovation of coal-fired boilers in Beijing and Shanghai is currently accelerating. Among them, Beijing will strive for no coal within the Sixth Ring Road in 2015, while Shanghai is preparing to complete the replacement of the remaining 2,500 coal-fired boilers in 2015.

With the deepening of the coal control and coal-restricting operations, the consumption of clean energy such as natural gas in China is also rising. Statistics show that from January to April, the cumulative natural gas production in China reached 40.2 billion cubic meters, a year-on-year increase of 7.7%; the cumulative amount of imported natural gas was 17.1 billion cubic meters, an increase of 32.3% year-on-year; the apparent consumption was 56.8 billion cubic meters, a year-on-year increase of 13.2%.

Among them, in April China's natural gas production was 9.6 billion cubic meters, up 12.7% year-on-year; imported natural gas was about 3.9 billion cubic meters, up 18.6% year-on-year; and apparent natural gas consumption was 12.8 billion cubic meters, up 12.5% ​​year-on-year.

Based on this, analysts pointed out that energy-saving emission reduction policies and the promotion and use of new energy will inhibit the growth of coal consumption, which will have a permanent impact on the coal industry, including coalbed methane, shale gas, and wind energy. , solar energy, nuclear energy, etc.

Cold weather in coal industry waits for economic warming The nationwide “control of coal” initiatives and the promotion of clean energy use have made the domestic coal industry face the bottleneck of demand while also encountering the policy “ceiling”.

It is understood that the current supply and demand relationship in the domestic coal industry has undergone a dramatic reversal, completely shifting from the "seller market" to the "buyer market." According to calculations, in 2013 China's coal production capacity will reach 4.63 billion tons, and the market demand will be only 4.12 billion tons, equivalent to a surplus of 500 million tons.

Despite this, China's coal imports are still growing at a relatively rapid rate. According to the latest data released by the customs, from January to May 2013, China's cumulative import of coal (including brown coal) was 13.617 million tons, a cumulative increase of 20.9% from the previous year. Among them, China imported 27.57 million tons of coal in May, an increase of 5.6% year-on-year.

Based on this, industry experts predict that China's coal imports will reach 390 million tons in 2013, which is a 100 million tons increase over the 290 million tons imported in 2012.

Behind the surge in imports, domestic coal consumption is embarrassing. Data show that from January to April this year, China's coal consumption was about 1.26 billion tons, an increase of only 1.6% year-on-year, which was basically the same as last year's growth, and it was at a zero growth rate.

Due to the sluggish downstream consumption, imported coal continued to flow into the domestic market, resulting in a high level of coal inventories nationwide. According to the Coal Industry Association's data, as of April 2013, the country’s coal mine social inventory was at a high of 87 million tons, an increase of 9 million tons, an increase of 11.5%.

Huang Dai-li, an analyst at “Sinosteel Coal” pointed out that the adjustment of China’s economic structure, changes in growth methods, and the phase-out of high-energy-consuming industries in recent years have led to weak demand in downstream markets such as coke, calcium carbide, ferro-alloys, and cement, and companies generally started construction. Insufficiency ultimately restricts China's coal demand.

She also pointed out that due to the large coal inventories in domestic coal mines and the low sales volume, many coal mines are already in production and in accordance with the amount of production. “The coal industry has entered a cold winter. If the economy cannot warm up, the domestic coal market will continue to Full of thorns."