Abstract Recently, the National Development and Reform Commission issued a draft of the “Notice on Improving the Photovoltaic Power Price Policy†(hereinafter referred to as the “Opinion Draftâ€) to some government agencies and related photovoltaic power generation enterprises, and proposed a new implementation plan for the next-generation PV power grid price. . "Opinion Draft" on...
Recently, the National Development and Reform Commission issued a draft of the “Notice on Improving the Photovoltaic Power Price Policy†(hereinafter referred to as the “Opinion Draftâ€) to some government agencies and related photovoltaic power generation enterprises, and proposed a new implementation plan for the next-generation PV power grid price. The “Opinion Draft†subsidies for photovoltaic power generation, especially distributed photovoltaic power generation, are much lower than previously expected, making the prospect of distributed power generation full of uncertainty.
Forced distributed photovoltaic
As the main mode of photovoltaic applications, residential distributed photovoltaic power generation has been developed in Europe for many years, and has created a boom in the German photovoltaic market. However, due to the restriction of the power system, this model was previously impossible to start in China. Since 2011, the major PV installers in Europe have lowered their subsidies, and the impact of “double-reverse†on photovoltaics in Europe and the United States has helped domestic demand to save China's photovoltaic industry. The state has continuously issued policies to support the development of distributed photovoltaic power generation. In response to national policies, State Grid Corporation issued two documents, “Management Measures for Distributed Photovoltaic Power Generation†and “Opinions on Doing a Good Job in Distributed Power Grid-Connected Servicesâ€.
Personal distributed photovoltaic power generation is a vast market. The launch of this market will not only activate the huge investment potential of the private sector, but also bring huge impetus to the development of China's photovoltaic applications and clean energy. It will also adjust the energy structure and the energy system. Change has a profound impact.
Distributed photovoltaic power generation has experienced explosive growth in the past three years, but there are still a handful of individual distributed photovoltaic power plants. Xu Pengfei, the owner of the first distributed photovoltaic power plant in China, and the Qingdao citizen of Shandong Province, has become a celebrity in the industry. After people are happy, they are deeply pondered: Where is the future of China's personal distributed photovoltaic power generation?
"Opinion Draft" or hinder distributed promotion
According to the reporter's understanding, unlike the previous policy of unifying the on-grid tariffs outside the Tibet region, the new "Opinion Draft" divides the country into four resource zones according to the lighting conditions, and implements different on-grid tariffs. At the same time, the new "Opinion Draft" distinguishes between distributed generation and large-scale ground power generation. Spontaneous self-use part of the subsidy for electricity, the amount is set at 0.35 yuan / kWh; surplus power on the Internet, and the grid company in accordance with the local thermal power desulfurization benchmark price of electricity. The subsidy amount of 0.35 yuan / kWh is much lower than the previous forecast of 0.4-0.6 yuan / kWh.
The subsidy for distributed self-use is significantly lower than expected, and the yield is seriously low, indicating that the state attaches more importance to industrial integration and promotes cost reduction than to activate the domestic market. According to 5 days of self-use, 2 days online, of which self-use with contract energy management electricity price of 0.7 yuan / kWh, the Internet is calculated according to 0.35 yuan / kWh. If the internal rate of return is required to be 9%, the cost of holding the power station should be reduced by 30% from the current 10 yuan/wp to 7 yuan/wp. If the internal rate of return is 8%, the cost needs to be reduced to 7.4 yuan/ Wp, in the short term, distributed promotion is under great pressure.
The prospects of related companies are worrying
For Chinese PV companies struggling in the mud, any policy turmoil may make them grassy. Since the 18th National Congress, affected by various favorable policies, the stock price of PV-related enterprises has been in a downturn before the change, showing a turbulent upward trend. However, the publication of the "Opinion Draft" made the original depressed market worse, and the spring of the photovoltaic industry became more distant.
On February 27, 2013, the major domestic cutting fluid manufacturer, Aoke shares released the 2012 performance report, the annual report shows that the company's total operating income in 2012 was 2.077 billion yuan, down 19.29% year-on-year, and the net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was 97.2 million. Yuan, down 42.37% year-on-year. According to the data released by the mid-year report, in the first half of 2012, the company's cutting liquid business revenue decreased by more than 70%. If the photovoltaic industry can bottom out, considering that the market share of some products of Oak's shares has been stable, the performance will have a large increase. However, the "Opinion Draft" has hit the market's expectations for photovoltaic recovery. A securities practitioner said that “distributed photovoltaic power generation is the biggest growth point in the domestic market. The subsidy rate is lower than expected. According to the amount, the domestic market capacity has basically no growth this year, and may lead to the 2013-2015 period. The average market size is less than 10GW. The future performance of Oak shares, which relies heavily on the downstream market to drive demand, is worrying.
The cutting fluid is only part of the Oak's share business and has such an important impact on the company's performance. For those companies that focus on photovoltaics and closely related industries, the performance in 2012 is even more terrible. According to the reporter's understanding, since the second half of 2011, among photovoltaic companies, "who loses less is the winner" has become a normal state. The latest financial data released by Jiangsu Aikang Solar Technology Co., Ltd. showed that in 2012, the company's operating income was 1.36 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 10.4%, and the net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was 53.86 million, down 127.31% year-on-year. In the announcement, Aikang Technology blamed the company's performance and net profit on the sharp decline: the photovoltaic market demand is sluggish, the company's main product gross profit margin declines; the power plant construction investment scale and the impact of the government approval document acquisition time in the construction process increase the financing cost Europe and the United States "double anti-" makes component manufacturers reduce the demand for parts procurement.
On August 1, 2011, the National Development and Reform Commission issued the Notice on Improving the On-grid Price Policy for Solar Photovoltaic Power Generation. The notice clearly stipulates that the on-grid tariffs for photovoltaic power generation projects approved before and after July 1 of the current year are 1.15 yuan per kWh and 1 respectively. Yuan, announced that China's photovoltaic power generation officially entered the era of 1 yuan per kWh. In 2011, China's total PV installed capacity reached 2.9GW, making it the world's third-largest new PV installation country and the fourth largest PV application country. At the same time, it left a huge imagination for subsequent growth.
Earlier in 2012, domestic solar PV companies that fell into the US “double-reverse†and the major subsidies of subsidies in the major solar PV installation countries in the EU turned their attention to the life-saving straw of photovoltaic power plants. For a time, no matter whether you have experienced or inexperienced companies, you are trying to get a piece of it. In the financial crisis of 2009, the Jiangsu and Zhejiang PV module companies, which even suffered heavy losses, even entered the field of photovoltaic power plants, which caused a lot of controversy.
The boom in photovoltaic power plants in China has led to a surge in demand for photovoltaic inverters. Inverters have become the best link in the photovoltaic industry chain in 2012. TBEA, Kstar and other companies have rushed to the PV inverter market. However, after the noisy, the real performance is not as eye-catching as people imagined. In the situation of the surge in demand for photovoltaic inverters, as the leading enterprise of domestic PV inverters, the total sales of Sunshine Power in 2012 increased by only 23.53% compared with 873 million in 2011, and the net profit was 77.77 million, compared with the previous year. A sharp drop of 54.93%. If the "Opinion Draft" is finalized, it will intensify the competition in the domestic fierce PV inverter market. The market for PV inverters in 2013 is not optimistic.
The State Council’s institutional reform and functional transformation plan, disclosed on March 10, said that the National Energy Administration will be reorganized – the current National Energy Administration and the State Electricity Regulatory Commission will be integrated and the National Energy Administration will be reorganized and managed by the National Development and Reform Commission. . This indicates that the country will continue to unswervingly promote power reform, and existing highly monopolized power interest groups may face splitting, more market-oriented power markets or bring new vitality to distributed photovoltaic power generation, with grid-connected obstacles. Clearing, it is also possible for individuals to generate electricity by self-built distributed power stations. However, before more rules were introduced and implemented, these are just wishful thinking. The future of distributed photovoltaic power generation is still foggy, and the downward pressure on the performance of related companies is huge.
Exterior Wall Panels,Decorative Wainscot Panel,Pvc Wall Cladding
Huaxiajie Macromolecule Building Material Co., Ltd. , http://www.zjpvcpanels.com