Looking ahead to 2013, the â€œIcefireâ€ factor in the international oil market is still there. On the one hand, the U.S. economy is recovering slowly, the European debt problem is at great risk, and global oil demand growth is slowing down. On the other hand, loose monetary policy and the geopolitical crisis in the Middle East will continue to support international oil prices.
The International Energy Agency predicts that demand for oil in China, India, Russia, and Brazil will continue to grow in 2013, while oil demand in most developed economies will remain stable or decline slightly, with Japan experiencing a large drop, and it is expected to reach 3.6%.
â€œAs demand growth slows, the supply of crude oil continues to increase.â€ Liu Yaqin, senior analyst at China International Capital Corporation, believes that OPECâ€™s national oil production remains high, and the increase in US shale oil production keeps non-OPEC countriesâ€™ oil production rising. There is no pressure on supply.
"Using the depreciation of the US dollar to increase exports is the most effective means to promote the U.S. economic recovery." Han Fuling, a professor at the Central University of Finance and Economics, said that the U.S. dollar index will remain weak in 2013. According to OPEC's calculation, every dollar depreciated by 1%, and the price of oil per barrel rose by 4 US dollars.
The domestic oil market will not be sold. â€œThe 2013 international oil price may maintain a large shock.â€ Liu Yaqin judged that the oil price will not fall too much. The marginal cost of U.S. shale oil is around 90 U.S. dollars per barrel, which may be the bottom of international oil prices. If the price is lower than this level for a long time, the shale oil extraction process in the United States may slow down and support the oil price.
Zhong Jian, vice president of CBI Group, believes that under the influence of loose monetary policy, international oil prices will still be in a rising channel in 2013. It is expected that the highest WTI monthly average price may increase by 20 US dollars from 2012 to around 126 dollars per barrel.
As the world's second largest oil consumer, the expression of the Chinese economy affects the trend of international oil prices. As a crude oil importing country with an external dependence of nearly 60%, the fluctuation of international oil prices also directly affects all aspects of China's social production and life.
Affected by the slowdown in economic growth, the demand for domestic oil products has slowed down significantly. Sun Weishan, deputy secretary-general of the China Petroleum and Chemical Industry Federation, predicts that the domestic economy will continue to pick up in 2013, and the annual apparent consumption of refined oil will increase by about 6%. However, on the whole, the market will maintain its supply slightly greater than the demand, and the market will not sell.
"Although the oil supply exceeds demand, prices are hard to come by." Zhong Jian believes that in 2013, international oil prices are still rising, domestic oil prices are being "abducted", domestic oil prices may remain high, and the risk of imported inflation still needs to be met. alert.
The current timing of reform is relatively appropriate. In 2012, the highest retail price of gasoline and diesel in China experienced a â€œfour ups and four downsâ€. Although the number of rises and falls was tied, the overall price was higher than the previous year. Gasoline prices rose by 560 yuan per ton, and diesel rose by 590 yuan.
Experts believe that the reform of the refined oil pricing mechanism that is expected may be further advanced in 2013. This means that the linkage between domestic oil prices and the international market will be even closer.
"China's refined oil pricing mechanism must be in line with international prices, but also to achieve a relatively stable domestic oil prices." Deng Yusong, deputy director of the Institute of Market Economy of the State Council Development Research Center, said that there are lagging adjustments to the current pricing mechanism, and further reforms The path is to shorten the price adjustment cycle and speed up price adjustments.
According to Yao Daming, minister of the oil division of the Guangdong Oil & Gas Merchants Association, the new pricing mechanism for refined oil should be launched as soon as possible. On the one hand, the international oil price is currently running relatively smoothly and the timing for reform is more appropriate. On the other hand, after the new mechanism is launched, it can be put into operation. Continuous improvement, continuous improvement, and further promote the process of domestic market oil reform.
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