Tragedy PVC all year round

If you want to sort out the most "sad reminder" chemicals this year, polyvinyl chloride (PVC) is definitely on the list. As the problem of sluggish demand runs through the year, the current PVC industry has a strong bearish atmosphere. Some dealers even do not plan to touch this product next year.

Data show that this year's domestic PVC production prices fell significantly. Taking PVC from the five-type calcium carbide method as an example, on January 1, 2012, the average price of domestic manufacturers remained at around 7,118 yuan/ton, and as of December 26, the price dropped to about 6,489 yuan/ton, a decrease of 8.83%. In addition to the slight rebound during the “Jin 9 Silver 10” period, the PVC price trend for the whole year basically showed a “dropping” trend.

It is understood that this year the PVC industry experienced two anti-dumping investigations. India announced on May 15 that the final anti-dumping investigation against China's PVC anti-dumping investigation will be finalized and a formal anti-dumping tax will be levied on Chinese imports. On December 21st, Argentina launched an anti-dumping investigation against PVC against China for the manufacture of windows and doors originating in China and Germany. And partitioned PVC profiles initiated anti-dumping investigations. Anti-dumping investigations have caused the export to be blocked, resulting in a relative increase in the domestic supply of PVC products, and the contradiction between supply and demand has become more prominent. It has become increasingly difficult for PVC manufacturers to raise prices.

PVC downstream products are mainly concentrated in the fields of building materials such as plates, profiles, and pipes. Affected by the price adjustment policy, downstream companies are purchasing on demand, and PVC demand has been sluggish for a long time. Although the recent commercial housing market transactions have picked up somewhat, but with the Ministry of Housing and Development recently made it clear that continued regulation of the real estate market in 2013 is not relaxed, the demand side of a major announcement was shattered.

According to business statistics (100ppi. Com), the operating rate of major domestic PVC manufacturers in the second half of the year is generally maintained at 5 to 60%. Business club PVC industry analyst Teacher Ting Yu told the Securities Times reporters that, overall, the PVC market is bleak this year. Whether it is production enterprises, dealers or market players, they are all bearish. The price of upstream raw material calcium carbide has also returned to the level before the production phase-out plan. . "Several traders who deal with each other are not optimistic about PVC, indicating that they do not want to do this product."

According to Wang Meng, an information analyst at Zhongyu, in the medium to long term, the country’s stimulus to domestic demand and the promotion of affordable housing construction will boost demand for PVC next year, but the short-term downturn will continue until March.