Iron ore has once again sparked a "crazy stone" phenomenon, with prices surging by 50% in just three months. Since the second half of 2012, iron ore fell below $90 per ton for the first time in three years, but it has since climbed to $123.51 and is still on the rise. The recent surge was fueled by the introduction of a 40 trillion yuan urbanization investment plan, which boosted market expectations. However, despite this sharp increase, many industry experts believe the current rally is unsustainable.
CRU recently forecasted that iron ore prices will peak next year before declining. According to the firm, increased production from Australia and Brazil will offset export restrictions from India, leading to a steady rise in global supply. Meanwhile, China's GDP growth and global iron production are slowing down, which could lead to a decline in iron ore prices after their peak. CRU predicts that the price may reach a high of $128 per ton in 2013, indicating that further significant increases are unlikely and downside risks are on the horizon.
Foreign miners remain optimistic about demand from the domestic steel sector, as strong downstream demand is expected to drive steel market improvements. Given China’s heavy reliance on iron ore imports, this optimism is understandable. However, even if steel demand is expected to grow next year, the actual demand from the construction and trade sectors may not be as robust as anticipated.
Urbanization has become a hot topic across China, with a projected 40 trillion yuan in investment over the next decade. But the real challenge lies in funding. Urbanization requires massive capital for infrastructure and migrant worker integration, yet local governments face revenue shortfalls, bank lending constraints, and debt repayment pressures. As a result, regional governments still have many hurdles to overcome in implementing urbanization plans.
Additionally, the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development announced that it will continue to enforce strict housing policies next year, including credit controls, tax measures, and purchase restrictions. This signals a continued crackdown on speculative real estate demand. Furthermore, the number of affordable housing projects planned for 2013 is slightly lower than in 2012, suggesting weaker steel demand from the housing sector.
The shipbuilding industry is also struggling, with data showing a sharp drop in completed ships, new orders, and held orders. These declines indicate a prolonged downturn in the sector. Meanwhile, the automotive and appliance industries are grappling with large inventory levels, further dampening steel demand.
Overall, steel demand next year is still uncertain. Construction activity remains limited, especially in the north during the winter months, and southern demand is also weakening. The rapid rise in iron ore prices is unlikely to continue. Over the past two years, China's iron ore import sources have expanded significantly, increasing its negotiating power. The tightest supply phase has passed, and future ore price trends will increasingly depend on steel price movements.
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