Policy negative steel prices fell sharply

In March, the domestic rebar ** was suppressed by bad news such as property market regulation and high inventory, and the price gradually fell and fell below the 3800 mark. According to the spot market, the current site operating rate is insufficient, the demand starts slowly, leading to the company's stocks are difficult to ship out of stock before the year, and the continuous arrival of steel mills, making the stockpiling serious, coupled with the continuous drop in prices, business losses have been obvious Appeared, so most of the business mentality is more panic, that the market outlook will still be weak.

Property market regulation and control of the steel market "new country five" and the introduction of the rules, the capital market real estate sector has been fierce shocks in recent days, second-hand housing market is very hot. However, before the introduction of relevant regulations in various regions, the market signals were complex and changeable, and the outlook of the market remained uncertain. In this regard, the impact of the New Deal on market expectations is more obvious, and it does not rule out the possibility of the introduction of stringent rules in the future.

According to the statement made by the officials of the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development on the ****, by the end of March this year, relevant rules may be introduced in various places. Whether it is the “New Country Five” or the supporting rules, it involves several core contents, including the annual price control targets for local governments and the annual residential land plans. In addition, the New Deal requires cities above the prefecture level to include qualifying groups in the scope of safeguards, and should also be reflected in the rules.

The property market regulation and control of the New Deal once hit real estate stocks once. After the new property market emerged, the stock market plummeted. This was caused by excessive interpretation of the market, or a partial panic in the market. In short, the current more stringent market regulation policies will continue to suppress the steel market.

The average daily output of crude steel has reached a record high, and the supply pressure has not decreased. This year, the record of crude steel production in China has been successively broken. According to the latest statistics from the National Bureau of Statistics, China's crude steel production in the first two months was 125.542 million tons, an increase of 10.6% year-on-year; average daily average crude steel production was 2,212,300 tons, the highest in the same period in history.

Relevant data show that the average daily production of crude steel in December last year was 1,589,900 tons, and it quickly soared to 2,126,300 tons in the first two months of this year, a significant increase of 14.32%, the highest level in the same period in history, and the contradiction between the oversupply of the market was further aggravated. .

Over the years, the average daily crude steel production at the beginning of the year has increased significantly from the end of the previous year. According to industry insiders, due to pressure from energy saving, emission reduction, and tax payment, some companies will underreport crude steel production at the end of last year and make up for it at the beginning of the second year.

In addition, the record of steel production in February this year is very worthy of attention because of the Chinese New Year holiday in February. The increase in production shows that steel mills hope to use the opportunity of higher steel prices to sell more products. It is also the increase in steel production that causes the current supply pressure to increase, and steel prices continue to weaken after rebounding.

Increment in stocks, unfavorable rebound in steel prices From the current inventory of steel stocks in the spot market, as of March 8, 2013, the nation's major markets, the five major steel varieties of social inventory of 22,316,000 tons, rising for 12 consecutive weeks. Compared with the same period of last year (March 9, 2012), the year-on-year increase was 3.652 million tons. In terms of sub-categories, the inventory of rebar in major cities across China was 10.7979 million tons, an increase of 2.4096 million tons from the same period of last year (2012-3-9), an increase of 28.73% over the same period of last year. The year-on-year increase continued to expand and reached a record high.

Although the growth rates of Central China, Northwest China, and East China where the early inventories rose rapidly have slowed down, the overall upward trend remains unchanged. At the same time, the inventories in North China continue to increase at a faster pace. Under this circumstance, even if the current procurement of domestic construction sites gradually resumes, some urban market transactions have improved, stocks have been gradually digested, and prices have bottomed out; however, cities have also exerted strong pressure on prices due to their huge inventory pressure. force.

By comparing the consumption of steel social stocks over the past three years, in general, the total time for the social inventories of steel products is about 9 months. However, in recent years, the stock of steel stocks has been increasing year by year, and the digestion rate has also increased. Slowing down year by year. According to the current growth rate of crude steel production, the inventory of the steel market in the latter period will be further extended, which is not conducive to the rebound of steel prices.

Whether environmental protection issues can lead to production cuts According to the market, from March 13 to March 28, the environmental protection headquarters will conduct thorough investigation on 128 key polluting enterprises in Tangshan. The market believes that this news has indeed warned the power of high-consumption and high-pollution enterprises to stop production. For the current weak market, it is undoubtedly a good medicine to stop rebounding. From the experience in recent years, it can be seen that the events involving the production of steel mills will all make the steel market fall out of the blue. Among them, in 2010 the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology said that it would eliminate the company's annual output of crude steel with a capacity of less than 1 million tons. The market expects this action will reduce the supply of steel and the market price will stop rebounding; the spring drought in 2011 will affect hydropower, electricity supply will be tight, and only individual steel enterprises will be affected. The production is limited, but this news has been fermented in the market and has become the key point for the market to stop rebounding. Therefore, it is worth looking forward to whether the 128 key pollution-disposing enterprises in Tangshan can do a thorough investigation in 2013 to set off a rebound.

Based on the above analysis, the current high crude steel production and huge steel inventories, the contradiction between the oversupply of the market is further aggravated and will weaken the long-term price of steel products. However, the current decline in RB1310 contract has exceeded 7%, so it is near 3700. It is not recommended to chase after the air. After the rally, consider short selling near 3950 and stop loss at 4000.