2013 domestic steel prices may be low and high

In a recent speech at the 2013 Construction Machinery Product Development Forum in Beijing, Li Xinchuang highlighted that China’s crude steel production and consumption were expected to grow at a modest pace in 2013. He projected that total crude steel output would reach approximately 746 million tons, while apparent consumption was estimated to be around 700 million tons. Li pointed out that China is facing a significant overcapacity issue in its steel industry. This is largely due to the current regulatory framework, which mainly targets large state-owned enterprises but fails to impose meaningful restrictions on smaller firms. Moreover, local governments continue to push for expansion of steel production, as it generates substantial tax revenue and contributes significantly to regional GDP growth. As a result, the industry has seen intensified competition, with many companies struggling to remain profitable. According to data from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the top 80 large and medium-sized steel enterprises recorded a total sales revenue of 3.5441 trillion yuan in 2012, a 4.3% decline compared to the previous year. Their profits fell sharply by 98.2%, reaching just 1.58 billion yuan, with a near-zero profit margin of 0.04%. Li explained that this figure includes profits from investment and trade activities, but when focusing solely on the steel industry, these companies actually suffered a loss of 42.7 billion yuan. Looking ahead, Li predicted that steel prices in 2012 remained low, but they could see some support from demand and production costs in 2013. While prices might rise slightly compared to the previous year, he emphasized that long-standing issues such as overcapacity and excessive competition would not be resolved quickly. Therefore, a sharp increase in steel prices was unlikely. Overall, the outlook for 2013 was described as "low in the beginning, high later, and upward overall."

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