PX price upward PTA strong performance

I. Fundamental Information With the New York Mercantile Exchange, the London Mercantile Exchange, and the Asian PX market closed for Christmas, U.S. Congress and the White House have temporarily paused negotiations on avoiding the fiscal cliff, which stems from tax hikes and spending cuts. The situation remains uncertain, with a possible resolution expected only at the last minute, particularly around December 27th. If no agreement is reached, the U.S. government will trigger the automatic spending reduction mechanism, causing further economic uncertainty. Meanwhile, the spot price of PTA has been gradually rising, with active trading in the reeling market. Prices have seen a slight increase, while manufacturers' inventory levels have dropped significantly. In the third quarter, the textile industry showed overall growth, though chemical fiber production remained weak. Cotton and silk spinning, however, experienced rapid growth. In terms of upstream costs, South Korean S-Oil announced its January 2013 PX contract promotion price at $1,670/CFR, a sharp increase from the $80/ton advocacy price in December 2012. Similarly, Japan’s Jikun Nitrate's Nishishi Energy set its annual PX price at $1,650/ton, up from $60/ton in December 2012. These increases are contributing to higher production costs for downstream industries. II. Downstream Spot News On the downstream side, polyester filament prices in East China saw partial increases. The current mainstream offers are as follows: POY150D/48F at 11,125 yuan/ton, FDY150D/96F at 11,650 yuan/ton, and DTY150D/48F at 12,650 yuan/ton. Production and sales of polyester filaments in Jiangsu and Zhejiang have rebounded, with POY demand rising by 150% to 200%. Slicing prices in Jiangsu and Zhejiang are currently quoted between 10,600–10,750 yuan/ton for semi-light chips, and 10,550–10,700 yuan/ton for light chips. Demand from the main downstream sectors remains strong, although overall market activity is light due to weak demand. III. PTA Market Performance On December 19th, the North China PTA market was sluggish. The offer price hovered around 8,600–8,650 yuan/ton, while downstream buyers bid around 8,550 yuan/ton. The actual transaction price settled near 8,600 yuan/ton. In East China, the domestic trade market for PTA was bleak, with holders offering around 8,600 yuan/ton. Buyers were willing to pay approximately 8,500 yuan/ton, and the final negotiation price stood at about 8,550 yuan/ton. The import PTA spot market also saw a rise in prices, with near-Taiwan market prices reaching around 1,170 USD/ton. Downstream buyers offered 1,155–1,160 USD/ton, and the final deal was made at 1,160–1,165 USD/ton. South Korea’s offers were approximately 1,160 USD/ton, with buyers bidding around 1,150 USD/ton and transactions settling at 1,155 USD/ton. IV. Futures Market Outlook The Zhengzhou PTA1305 contract opened at 8,398 yuan/ton and closed at 8,460 yuan/ton, marking an increase of 110 yuan/ton or 1.32% compared to the previous day. The trading volume reached 1.27 million contracts, with open interest rising by 56,468 contracts to 585.08 million. Despite the overall long position, today’s breakout above the 8,400 yuan/ton level suggests continued support from the average system. Currently, the PTA1305 contract is expected to maintain a long position, with the open interest not exceeding 60%. This indicates a cautious but optimistic outlook for the near term.

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