The 2012 Caixin Summit took place in Beijing today, drawing attention to pressing issues surrounding China's foreign trade and economic growth. During the afternoon session, renowned scholars Ha Jiming and Yao Yang delved into the challenges facing China's foreign trade, including fluctuating external demand, rising production costs, and the stagnation of traditional export models. Achieving equilibrium in foreign trade and fostering sustainable development have become key concerns for both academics and business leaders alike.
Yao Yang, director of the China Center for Economic Research at Peking University, highlighted the potential shift in global trade dynamics, suggesting that by 2020, China might surpass the U.S. as the largest importer for consumption, investment, and exports. Despite China's impressive economic performance, the export growth rate has decelerated significantly. Yao Yang anticipates that China’s exports will stabilize at a 10% growth rate in the coming decade. Post-WTO accession, China’s exports maintained an annual growth rate of approximately 29%, quadrupling in just seven or eight years. However, Yao Yang argues that such rapid expansion is unsustainable. He predicts that future export growth will slow due to both domestic and international factors. With demand from developed countries waning, China’s export growth is unlikely to rebound to previous levels.
Yao Yang remarked on China’s remarkable recovery over the past two years, noting that while other regions have faced decline, expecting exports to return to 20% growth is unrealistic. He envisions a transformative decade ahead, where China transitions from being a global manufacturing hub to becoming a major consumer market. By 2020, Yao Yang forecasts a reversal in China’s foreign trade structure, positioning it as a dominant global importer, potentially even surpassing the U.S.
Scholars have urged China to enhance its participation in global trade institutions like the WTO. Professor Rahman from the International Institute for Management Development (IMD) in Lausanne, Switzerland, emphasized the importance of China taking a more proactive stance within the WTO. Discussing the current global trade landscape, he noted that countries like South Korea have also encountered trade obstacles. The rise of China has caused concern among many European nations, while Europe, the U.S., and Japan continue to dominate trade negotiations. Trade protectionism and nationalism further complicate the situation. Rahman advised that China must actively engage in WTO activities to prevent worsening trade bottlenecks. He stated, “If China does not take action, the trade barriers could intensify.â€
In contrast, Bennett, the chief economist at Aopu Global Investment, expressed optimism regarding the global economy. He argued that the worst of the economic downturn has passed, with the euro remaining resilient despite Europe’s ongoing economic adjustments. Bennett predicted gradual improvement in the U.S. economy as well. He encouraged Chinese businesses to seize opportunities during times of uncertainty, advocating for bold expansion into overseas markets. Bennett also emphasized the need for China to develop stronger brands and promote its products globally. He remarked, “Many European firms focus on defensive strategies during tough times, while Asia holds significant potential for growth.â€
Bennett suggested that balancing imports and exports would benefit China’s economy, particularly in the service sector. He concluded, “Good service trade enhances competitiveness, and embracing this approach will yield long-term benefits.â€
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