Overcapacity is curtailing the coke market

Since the listing of coke **, the overall performance of the coke ** has shown signs of falling, rising and rising, and high correlation with thermal coal, while overcapacity runs through the entire coke market.

Excessive production capacity leads to falling prices and rising coke. Overcapacity has been restricting the healthy development of the coke industry. At the same time, it also has a big impact on the market: when the current price rises to a high level due to power shortages, it is positive to sell the guarantees. The admission price was pressed; however, when the current price dropped to a low level, there was little entry for more funds. On the one hand, due to the overcapacity of coke, the coking enterprises are struggling for a long time at the edge of losses. Therefore, as long as the current price rises significantly compared with the spot price, the coking enterprises will actively sell the hedging lock-in profits; on the other hand, the coking industry concentrates. With a low degree and in the gap between the coal industry and the steel industry, steel companies can use their relatively strong position to directly purchase coke at a low price in the spot market. Therefore, the use of coke ** has a low willingness to buy raw materials. In addition, the coke ** delivery standard is roughly equivalent to the national standard primary metallurgical coke, although the quality is higher, but the main demand grade of coke is secondary metallurgical coke, which also to some extent restricted the steel enterprises and coke traders admission The enthusiasm for receiving goods. Based on the above analysis, the author believes that the coke price may maintain the status of spot premium over the long term.

Coke warehouse gradually shrink from the listing to the end of May, by the new promotion of speculation and power shortage, capital coke has a strong degree of attention, the scale of warehouses rose sharply and led to the main force at the time 1109 contract rushed to 2,444 yuan / ton High position. However, with the retreat of the new wave of speculation and the ease of electricity shortage, the coke ** has shown a narrow range of oscillations, and the quantum warehouse has gradually shrunk and the degree of financial attention has been reduced. This is due to coke overcapacity, coke spot price volatility is small, the price is difficult to fluctuate sharply, so the relatively low degree of capital attention; the other hand, coke ** trading unit is 100 tons / hand, is typical Large contracts, which also led to coke hard to get the funds to care for.

Power coal coke price has a significant impact on the market since the coke ** listing, the sharp rise in the coke price is accompanied by the emergence of domestic power shortage: coke from the listing to the end of May, in the power shortage and speculation, the dual push, The price once rushed to a high of 2,444 points; since mid-November, the 1201 contract of coke rebounded strongly from 1888 points, up to 2083 points, due to the power shortage warning and the increase in electricity prices. The decline in coke prices also gradually eased the domestic power shortage: From the beginning of June to the end of July, the domestic electricity shortage eased, and thermal coal prices remained stable at a high level. As a result, the 1109 contract price fell from a high of 2,400 points and was at 2,270-2,350 yuan. / Ton area oscillated for more than two months. This shows that the thermal coal market has a very close relationship with the coke market. This is mainly due to the fact that the cost of coke directly depends on the price of coking coal, and the linear correlation coefficient between thermal coal price and coking coal is as high as more than 0.9, so the important influence of the dynamic coal movement on coke is self-evident.