In order to improve people's livelihood, break the constraints of deep-seated development, and accelerate the transformation of development mode, through economic, environmental and social adjustment, find the best path to achieve economic, green development and inclusive growth on January 19, in the National Development and Reform Commission At the International Symposium on the Direction and Policy of the 12th Five-Year Plan of the China Development Bank, Xu Xianping, deputy director of the National Development and Reform Commission, announced that the preparation of China’s “Twelfth Five-Year Plan†has been fully launched.
Around this plan, the Chinese government has openly bid for hundreds of topics for the world. For the first time, the five-year development plan has been jointly conducted by international organizations to conduct research on topics and to learn from the world in the form of seminars.
This is a brainstorm without precedent. Officials from 31 provinces, municipalities and autonomous regions in charge of formulating the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" were present and face-to-face with well-known economists at home and abroad including the World Bank, Asian Development Bank, EU officials in China, Oxford University and Harvard University professors. , a direct dialogue on China's future development path.
"The interaction between China's economy, decision-making and the global economy is getting closer. We hope that the 'Twelfth Five-Year Plan' can be improved in the interaction between the developers and the global think tank." The relevant person in charge of the National Development and Reform Commission told the "Financial Weekly" reporter.
Weakening economic growth indicators
The issue of China's economic growth rate during the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" period has become the focus of people at the seminar.
During the “Eleventh Five-Year Plan†period, China’s actual annual average economic growth rate was higher than the growth rate required for “four quadrupling†(7.2%) and the growth rate of the “Eleventh Five-Year Plan†target (7.5%). During the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" period, can we maintain such a high growth rate? Is it still necessary to maintain such a high growth rate?
Wang Yiming, executive vice president of the National Development and Reform Commission's Macroeconomic Research Institute, said that in the coming period, the external environment for China's economic development will be a "slowly recovering world economy." The financial crisis has brought the global economy into a difficult adjustment process, and it may be difficult to reproduce the previous round of rapid growth in the short term. Therefore, during the re-adjustment process, friction and turbulence may run through the entire “Twelfth Five-Year Plan†period.
Li Shantong, a researcher at the Development Research Center of the State Council, also pointed out that the international financial crisis will cause changes in the savings rate and trade deficit of the developed countries such as the United Kingdom and the United States, resulting in a slow and balanced global economy, and this rebalancing process will undoubtedly have an impact on the original economic development model. It is required to adjust the original industrial division of labor.
In this regard, Liu Wei, a professor at the School of Economics of Peking University, proposed in the summary of the National Development and Reform Commission and the Asian Development Bank's research project “A Study of China's Macroeconomic Trends in the Late Eleventh Five-Year Planâ€, although it is possible for China to obtain during the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan†period. Higher economic growth rate than 7.5%, but from the requirements of comprehensive and coordinated development of the national economy and society, the economic growth rate during the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan†period is still set at 7.5%, which is more appropriate in actual implementation. When the economic growth target is achieved, it can be slightly improved, and it is appropriate at around 8%.
Li Jingwen, an academician of the Chinese Academy of Engineering and a member of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, believes that China should not list GDP growth as the core of the economic and social development of the 12th Five-Year Plan. It is also inappropriate to mention the policy slogan such as Baobao and it is even more difficult to GDP. The growth target is the sole basis for local policy objectives and cadre assessment.
Adjustment is the spindle
As the partner of the National Development and Reform Commission's "Twelfth Five-Year Plan", Lawrence Greenwood, deputy governor of the Asian Development Bank, introduced the key results of the cooperation between the two parties. The key word is "adjustment."
In his view, China's economic readjustment should focus more on reducing the savings rate and expanding the demand of the domestic private sector.
On the demand side, re-adjustment means lowering dependence on exports and investment in fixed assets, while expanding domestic consumption demand; in terms of supply, re-adjustment means relying more on non-trade sectors such as services and reducing trade sectors such as manufacturing. Dependence.
“Re-adjustment of economic growth will not only help solve global imbalances, but more importantly, it will be an essential part of the development process and structural transformation. China must go through this process in the process of moving towards middle- and upper-income countries. Lawrence Greenwood said.
Wang Jian, vice president of the China Macroeconomics Association, also believes that adjustment should be the theme of the 12th Five-Year Plan.
Since the founding of New China, China has undergone many adjustments. However, the significance of this round of adjustment is different from the past. The adjustments before the 1980s are all based on shortages, but since the 1990s, China’s shortage background It is fading out until the background of overcapacity in the economic growth of the conversion cost.
In Wang Jian’s view, the current obstacle to China’s economic growth is not the bottleneck of the serious short-term industry, but the overcapacity of products and production. This contradiction will not be resolved. China’s long-term development will increasingly fall into the lack of demand. Low-speed growth, and even a crisis of overproduction.
Wang Jian emphasized that many factors have determined that during the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" period, China's economic adjustment is necessary. Otherwise, China's economic growth will become smaller and smaller in the next 30 years, and it will be unreasonable because of various important structural relationships. I have to slow down and even stop.
"As a human being, long-term high-speed running will inevitably bring disease, and it takes a period of time to cure, regulate, and be healthy, and then you can run again." Wang Jian said.
Green economy: an important path for future growth
Xu Xianping pointed out that the important goal put forward by President Hu Jintao at the UN Climate Change Summit in September 2009 will "effectively and effectively implement the 'Twelfth Five-Year Plan."
Lawrence Greenwood suggested that in the context of global focus on developing a low-carbon economy, China's "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" should emphasize the "green development path."
Greenwood expects that if China wants to transform into a "green economy" in 2030, it will need to invest 1.5 trillion yuan to 2 trillion yuan a year, which is equivalent to 1.5% to 2.5% of China's GDP.
Wang Yiming suggested that China's adjustment of its economic structure must be combined with technological innovation in the process of developing a green economy. The “re-industrialization†of developed countries has increased the pressure on China's industrial transformation and upgrading. "Re-industrialization" is not to return to the traditional industrial sector, but to achieve the revival of traditional industries on the basis of new technologies through government support. China must not only enhance its international competitiveness in the traditional industry, but also strive for market space in emerging industries.
People's well-being: the biggest premise
Xu Xianping said that the Chinese government will regard expanding domestic demand as a strategic guideline for maintaining long-term stable and rapid economic development. By adjusting the demand structure, the domestic demand, especially consumer demand, will be continuously enhanced to promote economic growth and achieve coordinated development of domestic demand and external demand.
Xu Xianping said that during the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" period, China will deepen the reform of the income distribution system, adjust the pattern of national income distribution, increase the proportion of household income in national income distribution, increase the proportion of labor compensation in primary distribution, and increase the low proportion of farmers and towns. Revenue income, expand the proportion of middle-income people, and provide support for expanding consumer demand.
In order to expand domestic demand, it will promote the formation of a market-led investment endogenous growth mechanism, further broaden the scope and channels of private investment, maintain an appropriate growth in investment scale, and guide investment to invest in the people's livelihood and social undertakings.
He also said that the well-being of the people is the fundamental purpose of development. It is necessary to persist in improving the internal unity of people's livelihood and expanding domestic demand, paying more attention to planning and development around safeguarding and improving people's livelihood, and improving people's livelihood throughout economic and social development. Institutional mechanisms shared by all people.
Professor Perkins of Harvard University in the United States suggested that in the process of transition from low-income countries to high-income countries, China urgently needs to further increase the proportion of household consumption expenditure to GDP in its strategic planning. In his view, in addition to reducing residents' propensity to save and increase the income of residents, they should also accelerate the process of urbanization. For example, China will face the housing problem of 150 million to 200 million migrant workers in the next 20 years, which will help expand domestic consumption demand. .
Wang Yiming suggested that the key to promoting urbanization during the 12th Five-Year Plan period should be to accelerate the urbanization of migrant workers in cities, while actively developing metropolitan areas and urban agglomerations, expanding small and medium-sized cities, improving urban comprehensive carrying capacity, and striving for an annual increase in urbanization rate. The percentage of urban population in 2015 is close to 700 million.
Solar power is the ultimate renewable energy source whether you're an eco-minded consumer or practical individualist. The sun's light is sustainable energy that provides a resource that is renewable and has a very low carbon footprint. Solarhome is a premier provider of reliable, durable, proven photovoltaic systems from leading manufacturers, allowing you to harness this free energy alternative. Our grid-tie and battery backup options mean those cloudy days and long nights won't leave you without electricity.
Off-Grid PV System,Off Grid Solar,Solar Photovoltaic System
Yangzhou Beyond Solar Energy Co.,Ltd. , https://www.ckbsolar.com