Mr. Ou Gaodun, Chairman of McKinsey’s Asia Pacific Region, regularly shares insights and forecasts about China's economic trajectory. This year’s predictions highlight key trends shaping the country’s future, from technological transformation to shifting employment priorities.
**1. Productivity Growth and Technological Disruption**
China is focusing on boosting productivity across all sectors—labor, land, and capital—to curb rising costs. This effort extends beyond manufacturing into agriculture and services. Additionally, disruptive technologies like private banking are gaining traction, especially in a country where online services are deeply embedded in daily life.
**2. The Rise of the Chief Technologist**
As technology becomes more central to business, companies are rethinking their approach. IT is no longer just a support function but a driver of growth. However, finding qualified chief technologists remains a challenge, especially in state-owned enterprises. According to Ou, this shortage could lead to higher salaries for those with the right skills.
**3. Employment Over Growth**
The government is shifting focus from GDP growth to job creation, as automation and productivity gains threaten traditional jobs. With graduates struggling to find work, social unrest could rise. State-owned enterprises may face pressure to retain unnecessary staff, despite inefficiencies.
**4. M&A in Logistics**
State-owned logistics companies dominate the $500 billion sector. But with growing concerns over efficiency, consolidation is expected. Private and foreign players will likely play a bigger role, increasing competition.
**5. Aging Infrastructure Concerns**
While China has built impressive structures, many older buildings are unsafe. Some cities have reached a tipping point, requiring urgent rebuilding. Yet funding remains uncertain, and local protests could complicate efforts.
**6. High-Speed Rail Expansion**
China is shifting focus from building new rail lines to maximizing passenger traffic on existing routes. The Shanghai-Nanjing line, for example, now runs every 15 minutes, with plans to double the network by 2015.
**7. Solar Energy Boom**
Solar power is set to grow rapidly, driven by domestic demand and Japan’s post-Fukushima energy shift. China’s solar industry is also expected to benefit from government subsidies, while electric vehicles gain traction due to pollution concerns.
**8. Mall Developers at Risk**
Online retail’s rapid growth threatens physical stores. Despite expansion plans, smaller malls in less populated areas may struggle. Many could close due to declining foot traffic and potential mergers.
**9. Shanghai Free Trade Zone: Uncertain Future**
Though the zone offers streamlined investment processes, its policies remain unclear. While it may offer some flexibility, the lack of transparency leaves room for either gradual reform or continued status quo.
**10. Chinese Football’s Potential**
Ou acknowledges that his previous prediction about Chinese football was repeated, but he remains hopeful. Guangzhou Evergrande’s success and international investments suggest a path forward, with cross-border brand collaborations becoming more common.
In conclusion, Ou Gaodun argues that the term “BRIC†no longer reflects the true dynamics of global growth. China’s contribution to global GDP growth far exceeds that of Brazil, Russia, and India combined, making it time to retire the label.
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