Abstract Recently, heavy precipitation has continued in the south, and rain and snow have occurred in the northeast and north China. Meteorologists believe that these extreme weather and climate events have a certain relationship with strong El Niño. Since November, extreme weather events have been reported to the National Climate Center for advanced engineering...
Recently, heavy rainfall has continued in the south, and rain and snow have occurred in the northeast and north China. Meteorologists believe that these extreme weather and climate events have a certain relationship with strong El Niño. Since November, extreme weather events have occurred frequently
According to Zhou Bing, a senior engineer at the National Climate Center, since November, precipitation has increased in most parts of China, including precipitation in North China, Jianghuai, Jianghan, Jiangnan, South China, central Inner Mongolia, and most of the northwest. The annual temperature is generally 50% to twice; the national temperature is generally high, including the central part of the northwestern region, central and eastern Inner Mongolia, western North China, most of southern China, southwestern Guizhou, etc., the temperature is 2 degrees Celsius to 4 degrees Celsius higher than normal. .
At the same time, extreme daily cooling, extreme continuous cooling and extreme continuous precipitation days occurred frequently. There were 180 stations with daily precipitation exceeding the historical maximum of the same period, mainly in North China, Huanghuai, Jiangnan and South China.
The El Niño event lasts for a long time and is strong.
"El Nirvana is on the verge, 'Wolf' is really coming." Zhou Bing said that the latest gazette of the World Meteorological Organization believes that the El Niño phenomenon is nearing maturity and is entering its peak stage and is about to reach its peak. At present, the sea surface temperature in the equatorial central and eastern Pacific has been higher than the average annual average by more than 2 °C for three consecutive months. In Zhou Bing's view, this is an unusual and very strange El Niño event. It has been going on for nearly 19 months since May 2014, and the duration is the longest in history, and the intensity has entered the top three in history.
“Since the Spring of last year, the El Niño event has been full of twists and turns.†Zhou Bing believes that the El Niño event showed a weak to moderate intensity in the early stage, and it has developed from strong to strong in the near future. “This also explains to some extent why the flood season is relatively stable this year. Because this 'wolf' is still in the developmental stage."
"Although the relationship between China's mid-high latitudes and El Niño is not direct, the indirect effects brought about by it are slowly emerging." Zhou Bing explained that the recent abnormal precipitation in the south has been more extreme, mainly due to the consistent sea temperature in El Niño and Indian Ocean. The result of the warming effect is that the subtropical high is extremely strong and the position is west.
Is the rain and snow in the north related to El Niño? Zhou Bing believes that since November, Asia's mid-high latitudes have generally exhibited a circulation of low to high east and west. After the second half of the month, the low-pressure troughs on the west side rapidly expanded eastward, bringing cold air into northern China. From the perspective of water vapor conditions, this year, the western Pacific subtropical high is biased to the west, and it is guided by anomalous southerly winds on the west side. The water vapor from the western Pacific is transported to the north of China, causing abnormal precipitation in North China and other places. Overall, these relationships with El Niño are an indirect relationship.
According to the analysis of climate model, this El Niño may reach its peak in November-December and will continue until the spring of 2016. It is expected that the winter will show a trend of high temperature and precipitation in the north and south.
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