Abstract In 2013, metal price performance continued to be sluggish. The LMEX index representing the overseas metal market closed at 3137.20, down 10.08% from the beginning of the year. The SMMI index representing the domestic market closed at 2116, down 9.38% from the beginning of the year. The non-ferrous metals industry...
In 2013, the metal price performance continued to be sluggish. The LMEX index representing the overseas metal market closed at 3137.20, down 10.08% from the beginning of the year. The SMMI index representing the domestic market closed at 2116, down 9.38% from the beginning of the year. The performance of the non-ferrous metals industry fell sharply year-on-year. The stock price performance underperformed the market and the industry as a whole fell. From the perspective of industry valuation, after nearly three years of stock price adjustment, the current P/C ratio of non-ferrous metals industry is 2.16. Although there is still room for the historical low of 1.55 in 2008, the current P/B ratio has been significantly lower than that of 2007. The average price-to-book ratio since. From a valuation perspective, although the industry highlights are hard to find, the non-ferrous metals industry is unlikely to fall further. With the optimization of energy structure and promotion of energy conservation and emission reduction, small metals and new materials will be promising.
According to the CRU study, the price of copper, iron ore and lead is higher than its marginal cost compared with the marginal cost. The price of aluminum, nickel and zinc is lower than its marginal cost. From the perspective of industrial investment, the metal price is higher than its marginal cost, which will attract industrial investment into the field, and also indicates that the future production capacity of the metal will face expansion.
The material industry is the basic industry of the national economy. The new materials are the forerunners in the development of the materials industry and an important strategic emerging industry. According to analysis, energy structure optimization is expected to boost investment in oil and gas, wind power, photovoltaic and nuclear power. Special metals, magnetic materials, optical germanium components, nuclear grade zirconium and other small metals and new materials are expected to benefit. Energy-saving emission reduction is expected to promote new energy vehicles, automotive lightweight, automotive exhaust gas catalysis and high-speed rail, urban rail and other areas of investment, industrial aluminum profiles, automotive exhaust catalysts, lithium battery materials are expected to benefit.
Wanlian Securities Research believes that the investment strategy of non-ferrous metals in 2014 is to explore the investment opportunities of small metals and deep processing sectors. In terms of new materials, it is recommended to pay attention to Liyuan Refining, Zhenghai Magnetic Materials, Jiuli Special Materials, and small metals. Focus on Yunnan Yiye, Qifeng Lithium Industry, Oriental Zirconium Industry, and Guiyan Platinum Industry.
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