The past month of May was a month when steel leaders and steel traders could not sleep. Affected by the superposition of multiple factors at home and abroad, the country’s steel prices have experienced a panicky decline. The single-week decline of some varieties has even exceeded 100 yuan. According to the market research of the Information Research Center, as of May 25, the average price of Φ25mm tertiary rebar in 10 major cities in China was 4,149 yuan, which was 209 yuan less than the same period of last month; the average of 5.5mm hot-rolled coils in 10 major cities in China The price was 4,181 yuan, which was 164 yuan less than the same period of last month. The current market price of steel is close to or slightly lower than the production costs of many private steel mills.
However, with the recent news released by the media at the end of the month, steel traders who are a bit desperate have seen hope: With the State Council executive meeting held on May 23, it is clearly required that “steady growth†be placed on a more important position. To promote the implementation of major projects such as railways, energy conservation, agriculture, and western infrastructure in the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan†on schedule, and start a batch of major projects that are related to the overall situation and are highly motivated. The speed of approval of the project by the NDRC is also accelerating. As many as 100 projects have been approved on May 21st alone, and relevant parties have been required to report all investment plans for the year before the end of June. Some experts expect that infrastructure investment will rebound significantly in the coming months.
Benefiting from the many positives recently announced, the steel prices in the early stages have finally shown signs of stabilizing at the end of the month, and building materials prices in Beijing and Tianjin have also risen slightly. Can the trend of the steel market reverse in the later period? Which factors are the key factors affecting the future development of the steel market? Steel Trade Association how to operate? With these questions, the author interviewed some industry experts and steel traders in the Beijing-Tianjin region. I hope that the opinions of these experts and the business ideas of steel traders can help steel traders in the lost country.
Increased number of favorable factors The steel market gold and silver and silver stocks have returned from the feedback of steel traders interviewed. Steel traders in the Beijing-Tianjin region generally believe that there will be no significant rise in the steel market this year, and the entire industry will be subject to longer-term adjustments. In the period, the industry's low-profit pattern may run through 2012.
The analysis of Yan Fei, general manager of Beijing Golden Dayu Trading Co., Ltd., represents the views of most steel traders. He said that from the domestic point of view, after China’s high-speed economic growth continued for many years, the growth rate began to slow down. This year, the country lowered its GDP growth by 1 percentage point, which means that China’s demand for bulk commodities including steel products has decreased, and this The crude steel output disclosed in the past few months has not only been reduced but also repeatedly hit new heights, which has constrained the rise in steel prices. It is difficult for steel traders to obtain high profits through stocking. From a foreign point of view, although the US economy has recovered slightly, it has shown signs of recovery. It is not obvious that the debt crisis in Europe continues to ferment, and the global economic stagflation risk has increased rapidly, making it difficult to effectively stimulate the demand for steel products.
However, some steel traders believe that the market for the second half of this year will be better than the first half of the year. Bloomberg, general manager of Beijing Sanjiang Water Trading Co., Ltd. is full of expectations for the market in the second half of the year. He said: “The market trend in the second half of the year is greater than last year's chances. After July, the market will stabilize in the end of July, August. There may be repeated, if the steel production capacity can really come down, this year may really appear gold nine silver ten market."
Li Jinlong, executive director of Haotian Iron and Steel Group Co., Ltd., believes that from the current day-to-day shipments of Haotian Iron and Steel, the downstream steel demand is still there. The reason why the market has not made any improvement is probably because steel traders lack confidence in the market outlook. He said: "The policy introduced by the country this year may be more about the late trend of the steel market."
“The bullish factors that have recently affected the trend of steel prices are gradually increasing,†the analyst told the author.
He believes that the greatest profit comes from changes in national policies. The State Council stressed that “stabilizing economic growth†has been placed in a more important position. Recently, the National Development and Reform Commission has accelerated the speed of approval of investment projects such as “Taigongjiâ€, and the Ministry of Finance has speeded up the allocation of investment funds represented by protection of housing construction funds. Support to weaken the downward trend of the economy. Investment is the biggest factor affecting the demand for steel. The acceleration of investment growth will have a greater effect on steel demand and prices.
In addition, Mali believes that in recent months, local governments have carried out modest adjustments to real estate control to stimulate rigid demand into the market. They are gradually working. Real estate sales have improved throughout the country in May. This will accelerate to some extent. The construction of real estate investment and projects will also have a good effect on the demand for steel and the price trend.
However, horsepower also reminded steel traders that there may still be a wave of decline in steel prices in the latter period. He analyzed that “the actual steel demand generated by the country’s increased investment will take some time to gradually reflect. After the government has accelerated the favorable news for the government to stimulate the stimulating effect, the price of domestic steel products may still have a wave of declines.†He personally believes that "The domestic steel market in the third quarter is expected to finally bottom out and rebound."
Han Weidong, senior expert of the expert group of the Information Research Center, said that the recent good news has made steel traders’ confidence recover, but the country’s increased investment can only stimulate the mid- to long-term demand of the steel market, and it will be difficult to generate actual demand in the short term. . In June, the steel market will enter the traditional low season of demand, and steel society stocks are much higher than the same period of last year. Unless actual demand in June is better than in May, steel prices may actually increase. He personally believes that there are many uncertainties in the current market. If the country adjusts its strategy, the steel market may improve in July and August. If the European debt crisis continues to expand and major problems arise, it will have a great impact on the domestic economy. The steel market is also difficult to stand alone.
Steady operation has become the mainstream steel trade and business awareness to strengthen the face of this year's sluggish market and meager profits, steel trade associations how to operate? From the point of view of more than a dozen steel trading companies interviewed by the author, these companies generally adopted the strategy of sound management, and they have become the common operating tactics of steel traders by not buying goods, fast-forwarding, reducing inventory, and reducing sales scale. Wang Ning, general manager of Tianjin Wanze Hao Technology Co., Ltd. believes that due to the generally prudent operation attitude of steel traders, the operating risk of the steel spot market is not very high, and the income of steel traders is better than last year.
At the freight yard of Changyu Hengxin in the steel market in Beijing’s Jingbei District, the author saw that the amount of rebars and wire rods that were placed neatly was not very high. The general manager of the company, Guo Shiqiang, told the author that compared with the standing stock of 10,000 tons per month last year, this year The company's standing inventory has dropped to a low point, only about 200 tons per day, but the company's sales this year are also good, with monthly sales of 20-30 thousand tons. Guo Zong told the author that the company's steel products this year are basically steel mills. When downstream customers have the need for procurement, as long as a telephone call goes to the steel mill, the goods are sent directly from the steel mill to the customer.
Guo Zong indicated that choosing a direct delivery method for steel mills can not only reduce the steel industry trader's inventory cost, avoid the large amount of capital occupation due to inventory overstock, but also streamline the intermediate links of steel supply and reduce the circulation cost of steel products. And the customer's procurement costs.
There is a large number of steel traders who have adopted low-stock sales strategies like Guo. The first-tier agents, including some steel mills, have also made inventory reduction the top priority at this stage. Each of these agents will determine an inventory amount each month. When the sales volume of steel products does not reach the projected inventory reduction plan, the agents will accelerate the shipping speed by reducing the price. When the inventory falls to the expected target, the agents Will not be a lot of shipments, will wait until the steel prices rise and sell. For these steel traders, without losing money, the company's steady development is the top priority. It is understood that many Beijing-level agents have dropped their inventory after a period of time before the current inventory has dropped to a reasonable position, no longer rush to throw cargo. This stabilizes the market in the next few months and the recovery of traders’ mentality is a strong support.
There are also some steel traders who choose to actively reduce the size of spot trading to reduce operating risks. Wang Dejin, general manager of Beijing Jintuo Jianye Trading Co., Ltd. believes that in the current market environment, steel traders “should not blindly expand their operations and then win by volume, as long as they keep steady, save their own strength, there will be opportunities in the future.â€
In addition, some steel traders have actively adjusted their business arrangements and expanded their business areas from steel spot trading to upstream raw material supply and downstream terminal engineering steel supply. Xu Chunming, deputy general manager of Tianjin Zhejin Steel Co., Ltd., told the author that the company will focus on exploring the raw material market this year, and plans to sell 2 million tons of raw materials such as iron ore, coking coal, and coal injection. The main reason for the exploitation of the raw material market is mainly to consider that the sales volume of iron ore, coke, and other raw materials is more likely to be larger than that of a few thousand yuan per ton of steel, and that it can better enhance the company’s operating efficiency through large-scale operations. . The original Tianjin Iron and Steel Technology Co., Ltd., the main wholesaler of steel products, entered the national key project steel supply field from last year. Wang Ning, the general manager of the company, stated that the steel distribution of the national key projects has a profit and a rate of return. Guaranteed, and can be purchased on-demand, greatly reducing the company's business risks, and therefore favored by the majority of steel traders.
In an interview, the general manager of Beijing Shougang Xinhualian Electronics Co., Ltd. said that in the period when the industry experiences painful adjustments, it cannot be hoped that the steel mills will give a good policy, because in the face of high costs, the pressure of the steel mills is also high. Great. Steel traders should calmly face the reality, take more destiny in their own hands, dig deeper into market demand, rationally allocate resources, and strive to control risks and maximize profits in every aspect. Only when the company adapts to the general trend of development can it develop better.
However, with the recent news released by the media at the end of the month, steel traders who are a bit desperate have seen hope: With the State Council executive meeting held on May 23, it is clearly required that “steady growth†be placed on a more important position. To promote the implementation of major projects such as railways, energy conservation, agriculture, and western infrastructure in the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan†on schedule, and start a batch of major projects that are related to the overall situation and are highly motivated. The speed of approval of the project by the NDRC is also accelerating. As many as 100 projects have been approved on May 21st alone, and relevant parties have been required to report all investment plans for the year before the end of June. Some experts expect that infrastructure investment will rebound significantly in the coming months.
Benefiting from the many positives recently announced, the steel prices in the early stages have finally shown signs of stabilizing at the end of the month, and building materials prices in Beijing and Tianjin have also risen slightly. Can the trend of the steel market reverse in the later period? Which factors are the key factors affecting the future development of the steel market? Steel Trade Association how to operate? With these questions, the author interviewed some industry experts and steel traders in the Beijing-Tianjin region. I hope that the opinions of these experts and the business ideas of steel traders can help steel traders in the lost country.
Increased number of favorable factors The steel market gold and silver and silver stocks have returned from the feedback of steel traders interviewed. Steel traders in the Beijing-Tianjin region generally believe that there will be no significant rise in the steel market this year, and the entire industry will be subject to longer-term adjustments. In the period, the industry's low-profit pattern may run through 2012.
The analysis of Yan Fei, general manager of Beijing Golden Dayu Trading Co., Ltd., represents the views of most steel traders. He said that from the domestic point of view, after China’s high-speed economic growth continued for many years, the growth rate began to slow down. This year, the country lowered its GDP growth by 1 percentage point, which means that China’s demand for bulk commodities including steel products has decreased, and this The crude steel output disclosed in the past few months has not only been reduced but also repeatedly hit new heights, which has constrained the rise in steel prices. It is difficult for steel traders to obtain high profits through stocking. From a foreign point of view, although the US economy has recovered slightly, it has shown signs of recovery. It is not obvious that the debt crisis in Europe continues to ferment, and the global economic stagflation risk has increased rapidly, making it difficult to effectively stimulate the demand for steel products.
However, some steel traders believe that the market for the second half of this year will be better than the first half of the year. Bloomberg, general manager of Beijing Sanjiang Water Trading Co., Ltd. is full of expectations for the market in the second half of the year. He said: “The market trend in the second half of the year is greater than last year's chances. After July, the market will stabilize in the end of July, August. There may be repeated, if the steel production capacity can really come down, this year may really appear gold nine silver ten market."
Li Jinlong, executive director of Haotian Iron and Steel Group Co., Ltd., believes that from the current day-to-day shipments of Haotian Iron and Steel, the downstream steel demand is still there. The reason why the market has not made any improvement is probably because steel traders lack confidence in the market outlook. He said: "The policy introduced by the country this year may be more about the late trend of the steel market."
“The bullish factors that have recently affected the trend of steel prices are gradually increasing,†the analyst told the author.
He believes that the greatest profit comes from changes in national policies. The State Council stressed that “stabilizing economic growth†has been placed in a more important position. Recently, the National Development and Reform Commission has accelerated the speed of approval of investment projects such as “Taigongjiâ€, and the Ministry of Finance has speeded up the allocation of investment funds represented by protection of housing construction funds. Support to weaken the downward trend of the economy. Investment is the biggest factor affecting the demand for steel. The acceleration of investment growth will have a greater effect on steel demand and prices.
In addition, Mali believes that in recent months, local governments have carried out modest adjustments to real estate control to stimulate rigid demand into the market. They are gradually working. Real estate sales have improved throughout the country in May. This will accelerate to some extent. The construction of real estate investment and projects will also have a good effect on the demand for steel and the price trend.
However, horsepower also reminded steel traders that there may still be a wave of decline in steel prices in the latter period. He analyzed that “the actual steel demand generated by the country’s increased investment will take some time to gradually reflect. After the government has accelerated the favorable news for the government to stimulate the stimulating effect, the price of domestic steel products may still have a wave of declines.†He personally believes that "The domestic steel market in the third quarter is expected to finally bottom out and rebound."
Han Weidong, senior expert of the expert group of the Information Research Center, said that the recent good news has made steel traders’ confidence recover, but the country’s increased investment can only stimulate the mid- to long-term demand of the steel market, and it will be difficult to generate actual demand in the short term. . In June, the steel market will enter the traditional low season of demand, and steel society stocks are much higher than the same period of last year. Unless actual demand in June is better than in May, steel prices may actually increase. He personally believes that there are many uncertainties in the current market. If the country adjusts its strategy, the steel market may improve in July and August. If the European debt crisis continues to expand and major problems arise, it will have a great impact on the domestic economy. The steel market is also difficult to stand alone.
Steady operation has become the mainstream steel trade and business awareness to strengthen the face of this year's sluggish market and meager profits, steel trade associations how to operate? From the point of view of more than a dozen steel trading companies interviewed by the author, these companies generally adopted the strategy of sound management, and they have become the common operating tactics of steel traders by not buying goods, fast-forwarding, reducing inventory, and reducing sales scale. Wang Ning, general manager of Tianjin Wanze Hao Technology Co., Ltd. believes that due to the generally prudent operation attitude of steel traders, the operating risk of the steel spot market is not very high, and the income of steel traders is better than last year.
At the freight yard of Changyu Hengxin in the steel market in Beijing’s Jingbei District, the author saw that the amount of rebars and wire rods that were placed neatly was not very high. The general manager of the company, Guo Shiqiang, told the author that compared with the standing stock of 10,000 tons per month last year, this year The company's standing inventory has dropped to a low point, only about 200 tons per day, but the company's sales this year are also good, with monthly sales of 20-30 thousand tons. Guo Zong told the author that the company's steel products this year are basically steel mills. When downstream customers have the need for procurement, as long as a telephone call goes to the steel mill, the goods are sent directly from the steel mill to the customer.
Guo Zong indicated that choosing a direct delivery method for steel mills can not only reduce the steel industry trader's inventory cost, avoid the large amount of capital occupation due to inventory overstock, but also streamline the intermediate links of steel supply and reduce the circulation cost of steel products. And the customer's procurement costs.
There is a large number of steel traders who have adopted low-stock sales strategies like Guo. The first-tier agents, including some steel mills, have also made inventory reduction the top priority at this stage. Each of these agents will determine an inventory amount each month. When the sales volume of steel products does not reach the projected inventory reduction plan, the agents will accelerate the shipping speed by reducing the price. When the inventory falls to the expected target, the agents Will not be a lot of shipments, will wait until the steel prices rise and sell. For these steel traders, without losing money, the company's steady development is the top priority. It is understood that many Beijing-level agents have dropped their inventory after a period of time before the current inventory has dropped to a reasonable position, no longer rush to throw cargo. This stabilizes the market in the next few months and the recovery of traders’ mentality is a strong support.
There are also some steel traders who choose to actively reduce the size of spot trading to reduce operating risks. Wang Dejin, general manager of Beijing Jintuo Jianye Trading Co., Ltd. believes that in the current market environment, steel traders “should not blindly expand their operations and then win by volume, as long as they keep steady, save their own strength, there will be opportunities in the future.â€
In addition, some steel traders have actively adjusted their business arrangements and expanded their business areas from steel spot trading to upstream raw material supply and downstream terminal engineering steel supply. Xu Chunming, deputy general manager of Tianjin Zhejin Steel Co., Ltd., told the author that the company will focus on exploring the raw material market this year, and plans to sell 2 million tons of raw materials such as iron ore, coking coal, and coal injection. The main reason for the exploitation of the raw material market is mainly to consider that the sales volume of iron ore, coke, and other raw materials is more likely to be larger than that of a few thousand yuan per ton of steel, and that it can better enhance the company’s operating efficiency through large-scale operations. . The original Tianjin Iron and Steel Technology Co., Ltd., the main wholesaler of steel products, entered the national key project steel supply field from last year. Wang Ning, the general manager of the company, stated that the steel distribution of the national key projects has a profit and a rate of return. Guaranteed, and can be purchased on-demand, greatly reducing the company's business risks, and therefore favored by the majority of steel traders.
In an interview, the general manager of Beijing Shougang Xinhualian Electronics Co., Ltd. said that in the period when the industry experiences painful adjustments, it cannot be hoped that the steel mills will give a good policy, because in the face of high costs, the pressure of the steel mills is also high. Great. Steel traders should calmly face the reality, take more destiny in their own hands, dig deeper into market demand, rationally allocate resources, and strive to control risks and maximize profits in every aspect. Only when the company adapts to the general trend of development can it develop better.
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