History is inevitable and accidental. If some chances are not caught, history may be another necessity. This is the case with the most competitive PV industry in China. If it is not accidental, China's PV industry must be another necessity. To reach the world's first position today, it may be 30 years later.
In October 2000, if it was not accidental, Peng Gang, the secretary of Deputy Secretary of Wuxi Wang Jiajun, was also concerned about photovoltaics. Perhaps Wuxi Suntech, the world's number one PV company, is still only a business plan; in the Spring Festival of 2005, If it is not an accidental car accident, perhaps LDK, the world's forefront photovoltaic company, will not land in Jiangxi Xinyu. These accidents are not decisive accidents. Relatively decided today's China's PV status and global PV production level. In July 1999, Yang Huaijin's meeting with Shi Zhengrong was a decisive accident.
I saw Yang Huaijin not long ago, and asked him to talk about the birth of Wuxi Suntech. Then I may know that this world may know, maybe I don’t know, maybe I don’t know all the past: The first meeting between Yang Huaijin and Shi Zhengrong should be in 1997. One weekend of the year, because of an accident, it was dragged to July of 1999, so there is a story that everyone behind photovoltaics knows. At this time, Laohong couldn’t help but think: As a natural person, it’s not so important for two people to meet or not to meet for two or two years, but as a Chinese PV industry, it is likely to be because of this. Occasionally it must not be as powerful as it is today. If the two meet in the early years, Wuxi Suntech can be established. It is also a problem to establish a brilliant future after 2004. If the two meet in a few years, the scale of China's PV industry may be In the later years, there will be no large-scale Chinese PV industry, or today's PV processing industry in Europe will be stronger than today, or today's PV processing power may be India or Malaysia. All of this was changed by the meeting of Yang and Shi at the time of July 1999.
An accident, an opportunity, is sometimes crucial to the fate of a person or a country. When it comes, grabbing it is even more crucial.
Now, a new opportunity is ahead of the Chinese PV industry, which is the arrival of photovoltaic power generation as a complementary energy era.
China's photovoltaics seize the possibility of this opportunity
Faced with this opportunity, and seize it, China's photovoltaic industry will be more powerful, and will play the role of leading the progress of human clean energy industry; if it can't catch it, China's photovoltaic industry will have a result that should not appear, can only play the following human The role of clean energy business advancement.
In the stage of supplemental energy in photovoltaic power generation, the thinking of China's photovoltaic industry is passive and simple, and the development strategy is gradually formed in the development; in the stage of photovoltaic power generation entering supplementary energy, the thinking of China's photovoltaic industry must be active and systematic. The development strategy must be roughly clear. Without clear perceptions and strategies, the possibility of China's PV capture and untenable new opportunities exists.
For the current Chinese PV, the possibility of seizing the opportunity is enormous.
The first is because China has an active and clear development goal. From the joint emission reduction agreement signed by the leaders of China and the United States at the end of last year's APEC summit in Beijing, to the forthcoming Energy Development Strategic Action Plan (2014-2020), and not long ago, Xie Zhenhua represented China at the China-Europe Economic Forum. With regard to the emission reduction commitments made by the world, China's emission reduction targets are becoming clearer and more prepared. The substantial increase in photovoltaic power generation is the most important means of achieving emission reduction.
Second is because China has the most powerful photovoltaic industry in the world. Since last year, China's total PV product sales have occupied 70% of the world market share, and this year China's PV power plant market construction scale will occupy 40% of the world market share. China's PV production capacity to consumption capacity are unparalleled.
Again because China has no retreat. In 2012, China's carbon dioxide emissions accounted for about one-third of the world's total. In 2014, China's crude oil dependence on foreign countries reached 59.6%. The haze has reached a time when the Chinese people can't stand it for a day. "China's environmental pressure is greater than any country, the environment. Resource issues are more prominent than any other country. China has no choice but to speed up the use of renewable energy and change the living environment.
At the same time, there is also the possibility that China's PV will face risks and cannot seize opportunities.
First of all, photovoltaic is a brand new undertaking for human beings. In its development process, it faces both the technical risk of detour and the subversive risk of revolutionary technology. On the road to human innovation, it is a risk to move too fast, and too slow is also a risk. When Gorbachev’s reforms were too fast, he not only lost himself but also lost the Soviet Union. For centuries, China has never played the role of leading the world in the direction of a modern industry. This is both an opportunity and a risk.
Secondly, PV is still a non-complete market-oriented industry. In the future development, highlighting marketization and realizing full marketization as soon as possible is always the most important issue in the development of photovoltaic industry, and market-oriented thinking system and mature market-oriented environment are solved. The basis of this problem. In this respect, China is inherently deficient.
While photovoltaic power is still exploring the energy phase, China has seized the opportunity to achieve overtaking in corners; in the stage of photovoltaic power generation entering supplementary energy, can China seize the opportunity again and test the wisdom of the country and photovoltaic people.
How to seize this opportunity
First, we will clearly understand the similarities and differences between the competitive environment of the photovoltaic industry in the energy and supplementary energy phases.
In the energy phase, China's photovoltaic industry can bend and overtake, and then come up. An important reason is that the main battlefield of competition is the production link, relying on the latest high-end equipment and low-cost labor. Since the reform and opening up, China's processing industry has been almost invincible in the world.
In the stage of supplemental energy, it is not so easy for China's PV to achieve its due success, because it must face two markets of product production and power consumption. It is necessary not only to rely on a highly competitive processing industry, but also to rely on the innovative business model and investment and financing capabilities of the power station construction market, and to rely on the market-oriented consumption environment, and to rely on the continuous improvement of the industrial and financial environment of a country.
Relative to the rapid progress of the photovoltaic industry's productivity, China's current production relations are not compatible, and even restrict productivity progress. This means every qualitative advancement in China's photovoltaic industry, or waiting for advances in production relations, or challenging current production relationships.
Second, scientifically grasp the role of non-market elements in the complete marketization of the photovoltaic industry.
In the energy phase, relying on electricity price subsidies is the core issue. In the supplementary energy phase, the elimination of electricity price subsidies is a core issue. In short, before the photovoltaic industry enters the stage of complete marketization, the relationship between policy support and market-oriented development must be the most important issue that fundamentally determines the development level of a country's photovoltaic industry.
The production and consumption of photovoltaics in Germany is not the strongest from the world's first to today's, and is limited by the policy subsidies that have fallen sharply since 2012. Although the US PV is facing a 10% drop in investment tax credits from 2017 to 10%, the power station construction market seems to have confidence in steady growth. In the stage of photovoltaic power generation entering supplementary energy, if China wants to become a photovoltaic powerhouse, how to deal with the process of accelerating the complete marketization of the photovoltaic industry through non-marketization means is the most test of wisdom.
In the photovoltaic industry, it is not difficult to learn and introduce market-based means. What is difficult is how to make these market-based means achieve the best results in this market in China. The current stock market crash in China is not due to the lack of financial means, but because of the financial means of hedging and leverage, we will not use and manage it well.
Third, opportunities are only for companies that are prepared.
At present, China's PV companies are facing double changes and pressures in the industry: industrial integration has entered a cruel and final stage, and profit margins have been ruthlessly squeezed; photovoltaic power generation has entered the stage of supplementary energy, and subsidy policies will surely decline. This means that China's photovoltaic industry is increasingly strong in the period of supplemental energy, based on the competition between the photovoltaic industry and the company, and this opportunity is only for prepared enterprises.
In the energy phase, PV companies only need to pay attention to the changes in subsidy policies, whichever is larger. In the stage of supplemental energy, PV companies must constantly learn and keep up with market changes, compared to who has a unique business model. Who can better adapt to market-oriented development and who can grasp the general direction of power reform.
Although distributed brings a multi-revolution to human energy supply, in general, energy is a economies of scale and monopoly. The opportunities and time space it can provide to today's large number of PV companies is limited, and find the development that is most suitable for them. The road is the key to determining whether a PV company can survive and develop in the next three years.
More than a decade ago, an accidental opportunity was captured, making today's powerful Chinese PV. Now, a new opportunity has come, testing the Chinese PV industry. I believe that "there was a sincere love in front of me, I didn't cherish it, and when I lost it, I knew that regret" would not happen.
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