Following China’s downward revision of this year’s GDP target and central bank governor Zhou Xiaochuan’s “may relax the RMB trading rangeâ€, the spot exchange rate of the RMB against the US dollar fell to a five-week low on March 6 and the one-year forward exchange rate (NDF) It fell to a new low in six weeks. Analysts pointed out that this year's GDP growth target is lowered to 7.5%, which has frustrated the optimism surrounding the global economic recovery, affecting the appreciation of the renminbi in the domestic and foreign markets. It is expected that the renminbi will rise between 2% and 3% against the US dollar during the year. Li Daokui, a member of the central bank's monetary policy committee, said that since the central bank restarted the exchange reform on June 19, 2010, the exchange rate has gradually approached equilibrium. “The trade surplus and current account surplus have dropped significantly, and foreign exchange holdings have also shown a downward trend. In this context. Next, the direction of the next step of reform is to let go of the two-way volatility and let the exchange rate further approach the equilibrium level.†In the current volatility of the renminbi against the US dollar within 5 days, Li Daokui believes that no reform will not work, and it will not change too fast. If appropriate, you can expand to 7, and then sum up the experience and adjust it in time. Renminbi exchange rate fell again According to data from the China Foreign Exchange Trading Center, on March 6, the spot exchange rate of the RMB against the US dollar closed at 6.3080 yuan, down 0.02% from the previous day. It hit 6.3189 yuan in intraday trading, the lowest in five weeks. The central bank yesterday lowered the central parity of the yuan against the US dollar by 0.03% to 6.3141 yuan. The data intercepted by the reporter at 16:40 yesterday showed that there was no principal delivery market overseas. The one-year exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar fell 0.2% to 6.3036 yuan, which was 0.1% higher than the domestic spot exchange rate. The contract price of the day hit 6.3073. , the lowest since January 25; Hong Kong offshore market, the yuan fell 0.1% against the US dollar to 6.3085 yuan. Zhou Xiaochuan, the governor of the central bank, said on March 5 that the RMB exchange rate has gradually met the conditions for appropriately increasing the floating range. He also said that due to China's improvement of industrial structure and the gradual reduction of the surplus, the RMB exchange rate is now "very close" from the "equilibrium level". Li Daokui, a member of the central bank's monetary policy committee, also believes that China should expand the trading range of the renminbi against the US dollar and further relax the two-way volatility of the renminbi exchange rate. He quoted Zhou Xiaochuan, the governor of the central bank, as saying that China should increase the volatility of the RMB exchange rate from the current 0.5% to 0.7% or 0.75%. Li Daokui added that the RMB exchange rate is close to equilibrium, and the decline in China's trade surplus has confirmed this point. The RMB exchange rate should no longer be regarded as the root cause of the global economic imbalance. The increase in the year may not exceed 3%. Although the speech of the central bank officials did not predict any trend of the short-term RMB exchange rate, the market expects the possibility of adjustment of the exchange rate policy to rise. At present, the market expects that the appreciation of the RMB against the US dollar will be between 2% and 3% during the year, which is significantly narrower than the 4.7% increase in the whole year. Zhang Taowei, a professor at the School of Economics and Management at Tsinghua University, believes that the high-level government’s attitude reflects the need of reality, that is, the volatility range of the renminbi “can moveâ€. In connection with the recent statement that the RMB exchange rate is close to equilibrium, it shows that in the direction, the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar will not appreciate significantly this year, and may even depreciate, and the bilateral fluctuation range will increase. Zhang Minjie, a well-known hedge fund manager, also said that the statement of central bank officials is paving the way for future exchange rate policy adjustments to increase the volatility of the renminbi, indicating that the possibility of a large unilateral appreciation like the past is not significant. A foreign exchange trader of a joint-stock bank said that from the recent disk performance, the intraday trading range of the RMB against the US dollar was very narrow, and did not touch the upper limit of the trading range of ±5. Like the continuous down limit in November last year, the situation did not appear before the policy was clear. The institution keeps a wait-and-see attitude and does not dare to act rashly. The above traders believe that it is worth noting that the volatility of the renminbi has expanded from 0.5% to 0.7% or 0.75%, which refers only to the volatility of the day. If the volatility of the central price is not large, the intraday volatility expansion is of little significance. It depends on whether the mid-price fluctuations keep up. In the view of Li Jing, chairman of the global market business of JP Morgan Chase China, the renminbi will appreciate moderately due to the narrowing of the export slowdown. It is expected that the renminbi against the US dollar will have a target price of 6.0500 at the end of 2012. The amplitude is 3%.
Led Wall Lamps,Led Fan Bulb,Foldable Fan Bulb,Mosquito Killer Lamp
Jiangmen Duramp Electric Co., Ltd , https://www.durampled.com