With population growth and global GDP doubling, global energy demand in 2040 will increase by about 30% from 2010, and energy needs in developing countries will increase by nearly 60%. Carbon-intensive fuels, especially natural gas, will gain market share, while the share of coal will reach a peak and then begin to decline for the first time in modern history. By 2040, natural gas from shale and other unconventional rock formations will account for 30% of global natural gas production. If there is no expected improvement in energy efficiency, the growth in energy demand will be more than four times the expected growth rate of 30%.
From now until 2040, when the global population will reach nearly 9 billion, energy demand will increase as the global economic output doubles and the global prosperity and development. ExxonMobil extended its annual long-term energy forecast for the first time to 2040. The company said that this year's report reveals several trends that may affect the way the world uses energy in the coming decades.
The report predicts that global demand for energy in 2040 will increase by about 30% from 2010, driven by growth in demand in developing regions such as China, India, Africa and other emerging economies.
Although oil is still the most widely used fuel, the overall energy demand landscape will change as the transition to less carbon-intensive energy sources (such as natural gas) continues and energy efficiency in transportation and other areas improves significantly. By 2040, the promotion of hybrid vehicles will help push the average fuel economy of new vehicles to nearly 50 miles per gallon.
The increase in electricity demand is considered as a single factor that has the greatest impact on energy trends. ExxonMobil predicts that as economic and living standards improve and consumers choose from other energy sources such as oil, coal, or biofuels to switch to electricity, global power demand will increase by 80% by 2040. By 2040, 40% of the energy produced globally will be used for power generation.
As countries turn from coal to more low-carbon and environmentally friendly energy sources such as natural gas, by 2040, 30% of the world's electricity will come from natural gas power generation, and demand for coal will peak, and then the first long-term decline in coal demand will occur in modern history. ExxonMobil estimates that by 2040, natural gas from shale gas and similar sources will account for 30% of global gas production.
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