In 2010, in the face of an extremely complicated domestic and foreign economic environment, the state strengthened macroeconomic regulation and control, accelerated the transformation of economic development patterns, and achieved steady and rapid growth in the national economy. Under this background, in 2010, the stability and coordination of the development of China's capital goods market has been significantly enhanced, and the market's endogenous development momentum has increased. With the recovery of the world economy, as well as the further revitalization of China’s production and investment, and the improvement of export situation, it is expected that the production material market will maintain a stable and rapid development trend in 2011 as a whole, but we must be alert to inflation risks.
In 2010, stable and coordinated development of production materials market, the trend of China's capital goods market can be divided into three stages: In the first 4 months of 2010, market transactions are active, demand is relatively strong, and prices are steadily rising. From May to July, the market Supply and demand growth stabilized and prices fell; after August, market demand accelerated again and prices further increased.
Demand growth has gradually turned into market support. From the PMI (China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index), the average PMI reached 54.1% in the first half of 2010, which was 3 percentage points higher than the same period in 2009, indicating that the country’s stimulus policies for growth guaranteed since 2009 continue to play a role. The economy continues to rise. In the second half of 2010, the average PMI was 53.4%, which was lower than 1.4% in the same period of 2009, but the trend was more stable. The average value from September to December reached 54.4%, which was 0.6% higher than the 2010 average. This shows that market demand has been shifted from the stimulus of policy stimulus to the support of the market and has entered the stage of normal development and steady growth.
From the perspective of the demand for production materials, in 2010, the entire society achieved sales of production materials of 36.1 trillion yuan, an increase of 19.6% over 2009, indicating a steady and relatively rapid growth. At the same time, market demand has steadily increased. According to comparable statistics for the 30 major production materials, in 2010, the total demand for production materials (including domestic market demand + exports) increased by 17.0% year-on-year, which was 1% higher than the growth rate in 2009, including growth in consumer demand in the domestic market. 16.4%, export demand changed from a drop of 27.5% in 2009 to a growth of 32.7%.
As a result of structural adjustments, the contradiction between supply and demand for resources has eased. In 2010, the country continued to increase its efforts to adjust the structure and limit the excessive growth of the “three-high†industry and some industries with excess capacity, and achieved certain results. For example, in 2010, the industrial added value of the metallurgical industry increased by 13.4%, and the nonferrous metal industry increased by 12.7%, which was lower than the growth rate of the added value of the above-scale industries by 2.3 and 3 percentage points respectively. Among them, the growth rate of steel production fell from 27.5% in the first half of 2010 to 14.7% for the full year.
According to statistics on the production and import of 30 major production materials, in 2010, total resources (including domestic production + imports) in the 30 major production materials markets increased by 14.0% from 2009 and 8.3% from the growth rate in the first half of 2010. It shows that the sustained and substantial increase in the supply of resources has gradually been controlled in the second half of 2010. The pressure on the oversupply of the market has eased significantly, and the structure of supply and demand has improved. From the trend of the year, the supply of resources shows a more robust development.
The price volatility climbed and the gains in the later period expanded. In 2010, China’s economic situation has been steadily increasing, and the development of related industries such as fixed assets and real estate investment has continued to improve, which has accelerated the accelerated growth in the demand for capital goods. At the same time, factors such as the increase in cost drivers, the country’s macro-control over high-energy-consuming industries, the increase in input-type inflationary pressures, and the excess liquidity in the capital market have caused the market price of capital goods to fluctuate upward, especially since September. The price increase has obviously increased.
In terms of different product categories, the prices of the nine key varieties under monitoring have risen to varying degrees. The average prices of raw coal, non-ferrous metals, refined oil, chemical products, ferrous metals, building materials, timber, electromechanical and automobiles have risen compared with 2009 respectively. 27.8%, 25.4%, 19.2%, 14.6%, 14.2%, 5.9%, 5.2%, 1.7% and 1.2%. In addition, the prices of diesel, steel, copper and aluminum rose significantly.
The external dependence on basic energy and raw materials increased. In 2010, China’s imports of basic energy and raw material products continued to maintain a stable growth pattern. The average import volume of the 30 major production materials increased by 6.3% compared with 2009, an increase of 31.9% over 2008. Judging from the average import situation in each quarter, in 2010, the demand for imported products has grown significantly during the process of China’s economic recovery from steady to rapid growth.
From the perspective of the structure of imported products, first, imports of crude oil, coal and other energy products increased further, and the degree of dependence on foreign investment continued to rise. In 2010, China’s crude oil imports amounted to 239 million tons, an increase of 17.5% over 2009; coal imports were 165 million tons, an increase of 31% over 2009; crude oil and coal’s foreign dependence reached 54.1% and 4.7%, respectively, compared to 2009. Years increased by 2.3 and 0.6 percentage points respectively. Second, the import of steel, copper, aluminum, iron ore and other products tended to decline, and the degree of foreign dependence fell significantly. In 2010, China imported 16.43 million tons of steel, 91.10 million tons of aluminum, and 591,000 tons of aluminum respectively, and the foreign dependency ratios were 2.0%, 7.9%, and 2.6%, respectively. Compared with the import volume in 2009, steel and iron ore decreased by 6.8% and 1.47%, respectively, and copper and aluminum respectively increased by 10.9% and 1.6%.
In 2010, China’s exports of production materials products rebounded. The average export volume of the 30 main production materials increased by 32.7% compared with 2009, but it was still 3.2% lower than in 2008. Judging from the average export situation in each quarter, in 2010, under the combined effects of the slow increase in international market demand and the country’s efforts to increase export policy support, the export situation has been improving and recovering.
In 2011, the overall market will continue to develop steadily and rapidly. 2011 is the first year of the “Twelfth Five-Year Planâ€. Although the world’s economic environment is still more complex and there are many kinds of domestic conflicts, we have a good foundation for economic development in 2010. It is expected that the overall production information market will maintain a stable and rapid development trend in 2011.
Market demand will continue to grow steadily and quickly. According to preliminary estimates, in 2011, the total sales of production materials in China will reach about 45 trillion yuan. With the continuous growth of production and investment, as well as the further activity of trade activities, the demand for social logistics will increase by more than 10%.
The upward pressure on prices will be even greater. First, the carryover factor in 2010 is still relatively large. It is estimated that the hikes will drive the price increase in 2011 by 6 percentage points; second, the pressure of imported inflation will increase, and the increase in the price of bulk commodities in the international market will expand significantly, as in 2010. Since the quarter, crude oil prices have exceeded US$90/barrel, and prices of non-ferrous metals such as copper have also hit new highs, which will drive the price of domestic production materials to rise further. Third, factors such as rising labor costs, rising prices of resource products and excess liquidity, etc. Both will push the overall price level up. Based on this, it is expected that the price of production materials in 2011 may further increase, and the average price increase will be around 16%.
In 2010, stable and coordinated development of production materials market, the trend of China's capital goods market can be divided into three stages: In the first 4 months of 2010, market transactions are active, demand is relatively strong, and prices are steadily rising. From May to July, the market Supply and demand growth stabilized and prices fell; after August, market demand accelerated again and prices further increased.
Demand growth has gradually turned into market support. From the PMI (China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index), the average PMI reached 54.1% in the first half of 2010, which was 3 percentage points higher than the same period in 2009, indicating that the country’s stimulus policies for growth guaranteed since 2009 continue to play a role. The economy continues to rise. In the second half of 2010, the average PMI was 53.4%, which was lower than 1.4% in the same period of 2009, but the trend was more stable. The average value from September to December reached 54.4%, which was 0.6% higher than the 2010 average. This shows that market demand has been shifted from the stimulus of policy stimulus to the support of the market and has entered the stage of normal development and steady growth.
From the perspective of the demand for production materials, in 2010, the entire society achieved sales of production materials of 36.1 trillion yuan, an increase of 19.6% over 2009, indicating a steady and relatively rapid growth. At the same time, market demand has steadily increased. According to comparable statistics for the 30 major production materials, in 2010, the total demand for production materials (including domestic market demand + exports) increased by 17.0% year-on-year, which was 1% higher than the growth rate in 2009, including growth in consumer demand in the domestic market. 16.4%, export demand changed from a drop of 27.5% in 2009 to a growth of 32.7%.
As a result of structural adjustments, the contradiction between supply and demand for resources has eased. In 2010, the country continued to increase its efforts to adjust the structure and limit the excessive growth of the “three-high†industry and some industries with excess capacity, and achieved certain results. For example, in 2010, the industrial added value of the metallurgical industry increased by 13.4%, and the nonferrous metal industry increased by 12.7%, which was lower than the growth rate of the added value of the above-scale industries by 2.3 and 3 percentage points respectively. Among them, the growth rate of steel production fell from 27.5% in the first half of 2010 to 14.7% for the full year.
According to statistics on the production and import of 30 major production materials, in 2010, total resources (including domestic production + imports) in the 30 major production materials markets increased by 14.0% from 2009 and 8.3% from the growth rate in the first half of 2010. It shows that the sustained and substantial increase in the supply of resources has gradually been controlled in the second half of 2010. The pressure on the oversupply of the market has eased significantly, and the structure of supply and demand has improved. From the trend of the year, the supply of resources shows a more robust development.
The price volatility climbed and the gains in the later period expanded. In 2010, China’s economic situation has been steadily increasing, and the development of related industries such as fixed assets and real estate investment has continued to improve, which has accelerated the accelerated growth in the demand for capital goods. At the same time, factors such as the increase in cost drivers, the country’s macro-control over high-energy-consuming industries, the increase in input-type inflationary pressures, and the excess liquidity in the capital market have caused the market price of capital goods to fluctuate upward, especially since September. The price increase has obviously increased.
In terms of different product categories, the prices of the nine key varieties under monitoring have risen to varying degrees. The average prices of raw coal, non-ferrous metals, refined oil, chemical products, ferrous metals, building materials, timber, electromechanical and automobiles have risen compared with 2009 respectively. 27.8%, 25.4%, 19.2%, 14.6%, 14.2%, 5.9%, 5.2%, 1.7% and 1.2%. In addition, the prices of diesel, steel, copper and aluminum rose significantly.
The external dependence on basic energy and raw materials increased. In 2010, China’s imports of basic energy and raw material products continued to maintain a stable growth pattern. The average import volume of the 30 major production materials increased by 6.3% compared with 2009, an increase of 31.9% over 2008. Judging from the average import situation in each quarter, in 2010, the demand for imported products has grown significantly during the process of China’s economic recovery from steady to rapid growth.
From the perspective of the structure of imported products, first, imports of crude oil, coal and other energy products increased further, and the degree of dependence on foreign investment continued to rise. In 2010, China’s crude oil imports amounted to 239 million tons, an increase of 17.5% over 2009; coal imports were 165 million tons, an increase of 31% over 2009; crude oil and coal’s foreign dependence reached 54.1% and 4.7%, respectively, compared to 2009. Years increased by 2.3 and 0.6 percentage points respectively. Second, the import of steel, copper, aluminum, iron ore and other products tended to decline, and the degree of foreign dependence fell significantly. In 2010, China imported 16.43 million tons of steel, 91.10 million tons of aluminum, and 591,000 tons of aluminum respectively, and the foreign dependency ratios were 2.0%, 7.9%, and 2.6%, respectively. Compared with the import volume in 2009, steel and iron ore decreased by 6.8% and 1.47%, respectively, and copper and aluminum respectively increased by 10.9% and 1.6%.
In 2010, China’s exports of production materials products rebounded. The average export volume of the 30 main production materials increased by 32.7% compared with 2009, but it was still 3.2% lower than in 2008. Judging from the average export situation in each quarter, in 2010, under the combined effects of the slow increase in international market demand and the country’s efforts to increase export policy support, the export situation has been improving and recovering.
In 2011, the overall market will continue to develop steadily and rapidly. 2011 is the first year of the “Twelfth Five-Year Planâ€. Although the world’s economic environment is still more complex and there are many kinds of domestic conflicts, we have a good foundation for economic development in 2010. It is expected that the overall production information market will maintain a stable and rapid development trend in 2011.
Market demand will continue to grow steadily and quickly. According to preliminary estimates, in 2011, the total sales of production materials in China will reach about 45 trillion yuan. With the continuous growth of production and investment, as well as the further activity of trade activities, the demand for social logistics will increase by more than 10%.
The upward pressure on prices will be even greater. First, the carryover factor in 2010 is still relatively large. It is estimated that the hikes will drive the price increase in 2011 by 6 percentage points; second, the pressure of imported inflation will increase, and the increase in the price of bulk commodities in the international market will expand significantly, as in 2010. Since the quarter, crude oil prices have exceeded US$90/barrel, and prices of non-ferrous metals such as copper have also hit new highs, which will drive the price of domestic production materials to rise further. Third, factors such as rising labor costs, rising prices of resource products and excess liquidity, etc. Both will push the overall price level up. Based on this, it is expected that the price of production materials in 2011 may further increase, and the average price increase will be around 16%.
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