What is the difference between the two major epidemics affecting the real estate industry 17 years apart?
With the continuous advancement of the nationwide efforts to combat the new coronavirus-infected pneumonia epidemic, the sales activities of the sales offices have been suspended in various places, which has also caused the "back to home" to stagnate, and the housing funds of the housing companies have been blocked. The market opened on January 29 Hong Kong stocks also fell for 3 consecutive days, real estate stocks fell across the board ... How long will the real estate market sales "freeze"? Will the development pattern of the property market change this year? Does the SARS epidemic that lasted more than half a year ago have a reference value for real estate?
Today (January 31), the Central Finger Institute published a research report that pointed out that the SARS epidemic in 2003 had slowed the short-term operation of the national property market, but the recovery was rapid. As the epidemic gradually eased, the operation of the real estate market also entered an accelerated development channel. However, there are significant differences between the economic environment and the characteristics of the property market in the two epidemics. The impact of the new coronary pneumonia epidemic on the property market may be greater.
Yan Yuejin, Director of Research at the Think Tank Center of E-House Research Institute, analyzed to the reporter of "Daily Economic News" that the impact of the new coronary pneumonia epidemic on the sales side is still relatively obvious, but this impact should still be regarded as a brief stop in demand release, which does not mean Demand disappeared. Demand is expected to be actively released in the second quarter, and data such as new construction on the supply side have similar performance.
SARS epidemic has little effect on the property market
According to the research report released by the Middle Finger Institute, "Respond calmly! From the SARS experience to see the impact of the epidemic on the property market ", comprehensive data from the National Bureau of Statistics and CREIS middle finger data shows that the SARS epidemic in 2003 lasted more than half a year, and the second quarter was the most important period for the epidemic to affect the economy and the property market.
From the perspective of economic growth, the growth rate of national real GDP in the second quarter of 2003 fell from 11.1% in the first quarter to 9.1%, which was the quarter with the largest decline except for the obvious economic downturn under the influence of the financial crisis in the past few years; After the SARS epidemic was brought under control, GDP grew by 10.0% in the third quarter of 2003, and finally achieved a full-year growth of 10.0%, an increase of 0.9 percentage points from 2002. The economic upward trend remained unchanged.
In this general environment, the SARS epidemic has limited impact on the real estate industry. The data shows that the added value of the real estate industry maintained a growth of more than 10% in the first and second quarters of 2003, which played an important role in supporting the macro economy. In August 2013, the State Council issued the "No. 18 Document" ("Notice on Promoting the Sustainable and Healthy Development of the Real Estate Market"), positioning the real estate industry as a pillar industry of the national economy, and the route for the continuous and rapid development of the real estate industry was opened.
Monthly year-on-year trend chart of real estate market commercial housing index in 2003 Source: National Bureau of Statistics, CREIS middle finger data
The Central Index Research Institute pointed out that from the response of the national real estate market, the SARS epidemic in 2003 only had a certain negative impact on the operation of the real estate market during the period of rapid spread, but after a short period of rest, the market quickly recovered and accelerated upwards. Little effect.
From the data point of view, the sales area of ​​housing in 2003 showed a year-on-year growth rate rebounded rapidly and occupied a high position. The year-on-year growth rate of real estate development investment reached the second highest level in the year after the epidemic in June. New construction and construction area were also rapid Back to above the annual average growth rate.
The two epidemics are in different economic environments
After a lapse of 17 years, the current macroeconomic fundamentals have changed significantly, and the impact of the epidemic has also changed.
The Central Index Research Institute believes that China's economy is currently in a critical period of conversion between old and new kinetic energy, and it is still facing greater downward pressure. In 2019, under multiple pressures such as insufficient domestic consumption power and tight foreign environment, the GDP growth rate fell to 6.1%. The first phase of the China-US economic and trade agreement was signed in January this year, which boosted market confidence in the short term; but at this stage, new coronary pneumonia The outbreak will affect the catering, tourism, transportation and other industries, and investment in manufacturing and infrastructure will be affected. This will further increase the downward pressure on the economy and delay the short-term economic stabilization.
The Central Index Institute also pointed out that on the one hand, despite the impact of the epidemic and the weakening of domestic consumption willingness, the increase in new online consumption such as online shopping and smart services has weakened the drag of traditional consumption decline on the economy to a certain extent; on the other hand, the Central Government has already The Bank of China Insurance Regulatory Commission issued a notice to strengthen financial services for the banking and insurance industry. If people temporarily lost their income sources due to the epidemic, they should be appropriately tilted in credit policies and flexibly adjust personal mortgage repayments such as housing mortgages and credit cards. Arrangement, reasonable extension of repayment period, etc. Faced with the current downward pressure on the economy, the central government will continue to increase the support of relevant policies, and more policies that will benefit the economy will follow.
The year-on-year growth rate of commercial housing indicators in the real estate market in 2003 Source: National Bureau of Statistics, CREIS middle finger data
Yan Yuejin told the reporter of "Daily Economic News", "Three industry events have occurred in the real estate field. First, the sales office is temporarily closed, and online transactions have begun to increase, but there are still few transactions directly through the online platform. Or it is a project with a low total price, a strong investment property, and a house that has been seen before. Second, there has been a rent reduction and exemption in the commercial real estate field. In the rent-free market of the housing rental market, some departments in Guangdong have introduced policies, and other national policies There is not much performance in the localities. In general, similar rent reductions are worthy of recognition; the third is to restrict the start of construction. For now, the construction site is characterized by stagnation, which will constrain the supply-side data in the first quarter of this year. Looking at the nodes around the world, it is expected that it will increase after the Lantern Festival, so objectively, it is not too pessimistic. "
The development stage of the property market is very different
Compared with 2003, the overall property market in the country at the end of 2019 is in an adjustment channel. In addition, the intensity of policy regulation is also very different.
Seventeen years ago, China's real estate was in the initial stage of market-oriented development. Under the strong market demand, the sales scale continued to expand rapidly. According to data from the Central Index Research Institute, from 1999 to 2009, the combined growth rate of commercial housing sales area exceeded 20%, and the short-term spread of the SARS epidemic has little impact on the growth momentum of real estate.
However, after more than a decade, China's real estate market has experienced initial growth and rapid growth, and the demand has gradually been released. At present, the market scale continues to hover at historical highs. In 2019, the sales area of ​​commercial housing reached 1.72 billion square meters, which was 5.1 times the market size in 2003, and the sales amount exceeded 20 times in 2003. The driving force for the market to continue to grow substantially has weakened significantly.
National commercial housing sales area and year-on-year change trend since 2000 Source: National Bureau of Statistics, CREIS middle finger data
Yan Yuejin pointed out: "The impact of the epidemic on the sales side is still relatively obvious, but this impact should still be regarded as a temporary stop in demand release, which does not mean that demand disappears. It is expected that demand will be actively released in the second quarter, and data such as new construction on the supply side There is a similar performance. From the actual situation, although the current environment does have an impact on real estate, it also needs to be seen that the key to the development of the real estate industry is urbanization and other factors, the impact of the epidemic event is short-term, and if there is a stimulus in the follow-up Sexual policies can completely compensate for the poor real estate transaction data in the first quarter. "
After 17 years, the scale of development of housing companies is very different
Looking back on 2003, the real estate policy environment was relatively lenient, and monetary policy was directed toward credit encouragement and support on the basis of overall stability. During the SARS epidemic, credit and M2 growth continued to increase. After mid-June, as the epidemic was effectively controlled and subsided, the economic boom rebounded and continued to rise, and inflation also climbed significantly. The central bank also announced an increase of the deposit reserve ratio by 1 percentage point on August 23, 2003, starting a round of monetary policy tightening cycle.
In recent years, under the main theme of "no housing, no speculation", the overall policy regulation is in a tight state, and the rhythm of demand release has become more rational. In 2019, the sales area of ​​commercial housing nationwide has shown a trend of adjustment. The Middle Finger Research Institute pointed out that under the current industry background, the impact of this new coronary pneumonia epidemic on the real estate market may be more significant in the short term.
At the same time, after 17 years of development, the scale of housing companies is no longer the same. The sales scale of the enterprise in 2003 was not large. Although the epidemic affected the return of funds, the overall impact on the enterprise was limited. At present, the scale of housing companies is outstanding and some companies adopt a strategy of high turnover and high debt. The impact of limited capital return on the enterprise is self-evident, which increases the operational risk of the entire industry to a certain extent.
The Central Index Research Institute believes that because the property market itself is steadily adjusting the channel, under the influence of the epidemic in the short term, the downward pressure on the economy has increased, overlapping sales offices have been closed, and intermediary agencies have suspended business. The scale of the transaction will decline in the short term, and the downward scale will be more concentrated in the first half of this year, especially in the first quarter.
Yan Yuejin analyzed to the reporter of "Daily Economic News" that "The Spring Festival holiday was originally a stage of 'returning home to buy home', and the new coronary pneumonia epidemic has interfered with this, but this does not mean that prices must be reduced. In the case of a temporary closure, even a price reduction will not affect market transactions. In the second quarter, if the real estate company is more eager to complete its annual target, it will continue to reduce prices. In other words, the price reduction promotion action that originally ended in the first quarter, It will be extended to the second quarter. If market transactions are good in the second quarter, the pricing strategy of housing companies in the second half of the year will be slightly tougher. At this time, it is necessary to prevent various types of prices from rising too fast. "
"From a city or regional perspective, this new coronary pneumonia epidemic has a greater impact on third- and fourth-tier cities. Because according to past marketing practices, around the Spring Festival is the peak period for the release of 'return to home' demand. From the recent The epidemic prevention and control actions are relatively severe. They close both the sales office and some people ’s access to the city. Therefore, objectively speaking, the demand for “returning to the home†in third- and fourth-tier cities is difficult to release this year, and some housing companies must Adjust the marketing strategy after the holiday. "Yan Yuejin said that from a city perspective, including Hubei, Zhejiang and other regions with relatively severe epidemics, such regional policies will be more stringent, and the real estate market will be affected more objectively, which is also Relevant home buyers and real estate companies need to pay attention to actively.
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