Detailed analysis of China's machine tool industry boom index in 2015

In 2015, the overall operation of China's machine tool industry continued to show a significant downward trend. Under the influence of factors such as changes in the domestic and international economic situation, sluggish traditional demand, intensified external competition, internal operational difficulties and changes in environmental uncertainty, the operation of the machine tool industry has shown a state of inertia decline, and operational pressure has surged.

Overall performance: traditional engine slowdown, industry downturn
According to a survey conducted by the China Machine Tool Industry Association on the 81 key enterprises in the industry, the industry boom index fell to 34.5% in 2015, down 8.8 percentage points from the same period in 2014, and the industry was in a downturn. The 81 companies involved in this industry's business climate survey were from 52%, 20%, 13%, respectively, from metal cutting machine tools, metal forming machine tools, functional parts and numerical control systems, measuring tools and foundry machinery. 11% and 4%. From the perspective of different ownership systems, state-owned and collective holdings, private holdings, foreign investment, Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan holdings, and other four types of enterprises accounted for 45%, 31%, 17%, and 7% respectively. Therefore, the sampled enterprises reflected by the surveyed companies have considerable industry representation and can be seen as a microcosm of the current industry operations.

Subdivision: Operation evolves from differentiation to assimilation, and structural contradictions are prominent
From the perspective of different sub-sectors and ownership enterprises, the 2015 prosperity index is far below the 50% equilibrium line, and it shows a different degree of decline compared with the same period in 2014. Therefore, the industry climate index reflects that the industry operation in 2015 has begun to evolve from the operational differentiation before 2014 to the assimilation of the downturn.
Judging from the changes in the prosperity index of different sub-sectors, the industrial equipment and metal forming machine tools that were more stable before 2014 showed a sharp decline, ranking first in the ranking of the prosperity index from low to high (21.4). %) and third place (33.3%), while metal cutting machines that had previously continued to drop significantly were ranked fourth (36%). This new change can be seen more clearly from the decline in the boom index. The descending order is from metal forming machine (30.4%), measuring tool (29.3%), functional components and CNC system (15.8). Percentage), metal cutting machine tools (3 percentage points). Based on the above two aspects and actual operation, the following characteristics can be summarized:
● The adverse impact of structural contradiction between supply and demand on the machine tool industry is spreading from the local to the whole industry. Due to the different composition, market structure, management factors and environmental factors of different sub-sectors, the speed of diffusion is affected, and then the early stage is presented. Run the process of differentiation that differentiates into the current convergence.
● From the actual operation of the metal forming machine tools, measuring tools, functional components and numerical control systems, which have experienced a sharp decline in the prosperity index, the market demand for low-end products has shrunk sharply, which is the main external cause of its downturn, and related sub-sectors. The low proportion of the low-end product structure and the lack of transformation and upgrading are the main internal factors of its downturn.
●Since the metal cutting machine tool industry has been suffering from the market impact caused by the structural contradiction between supply and demand since 2011, the low-end production capacity has been relatively shrinking. As a result, the 2015 boom index showed only a slight decline. However, due to the prominent structural contradiction between supply and demand, it is still in the operation of the metal cutting machine tool industry. In 2015, its prosperity has been greatly reduced. All in all, since the Chinese economy entered the new normal, the structural contradiction between supply and demand has become a prominent problem that plagues the operation of the industry. However, due to the comprehensive influence of various factors mentioned above, the contradiction is manifested and produced among different industries and between enterprises within the industry. The impact is not the same. This has led to the differentiation of different enterprises and sub-sectors in the early stage of operation. At the same time, it has increased the uncertainty of the industry and policy level in the judgment of the industry's operating trend, and even neglected the potential risk of systemic recession due to operational differentiation. Judging from the current situation of the boom index, the above issues need to be given attention and actively respond to the structural contradictions between supply and demand.
It can also be seen from the changes in the business climate index of different ownership systems that there are signs of a downturn in the industry. In 2014, the foreign-funded holdings (including Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan) and privately-held corporate climate index also showed significant expansion trends, which were 67.2% and 56.9% respectively. In 2015, foreign-controlled enterprises (including Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan) and privately-held enterprises had a large business climate index. The decline showed significant shrinkage, at 23.9% and 34.5%, respectively, with a decrease of 43.3 and 22.4 percentage points respectively. The above changes are very evident in companies with different ownership characteristics. As foreign-invested holdings (including Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan) and privately-held companies have always been the most flexible internal mechanism, responding to the market changes the fastest, and also the industry group with the least impact in the down-front period, the significant contraction of the prosperity index confirms that the downturn is in the industry. The judgment of proliferation.

Prominent problems: internal and external factors lead to weakening of the development of the industry, "training internal strength" is still the key
From the various operational factors and expected prosperity index, the driving force of the industry's development has seriously declined, which in turn affects the confidence of the industry. Among the operational factors such as orders, operations, costs and environment, the contract contraction was the most serious, only 17.8%, down 21.6 percentage points compared with the same period in 2014; the business contraction degree followed the order in the second place, 31.2%. Compared with the same period in 2014, it decreased by 2.6 percentage points. Affected by the continued decline in upstream raw material prices and economic stimulus policies, costs and the environment are relatively stable. Among them, the cost was 47.7%, an increase of 2.8 percentage points compared with the same period in 2014, which was the only factor that showed a recovery. The environment was 57.8%, which was 4.5 percentage points lower than the same period in 2014. It is the only factor that is expanding.
Orders and operating factors reflecting operational dynamics and quality in the operational factors showed a significant contraction, which echoed the industry's development expectations and also showed a significant contraction of 38.2%, down 9.4 percentage points from the same period in 2014. Judging from the outstanding problems reflected by enterprises, the seven concentrated problems accounted for 87.9% of the total, which were 4 external problems (accounting for 51.7%): insufficient market demand (25.7%), competition with similar foreign products (10.7%), User default or ability to pay decreased (8.2%) and market disorder, unfair competition (7.1%); internal issues 3 (36.1%): tight capital chain (15%), internal costs too high (12.5%) ) and talent shortage (8.6%). Although the external factors restricting the development of the industry are more than internal factors, many external factors are also an indirect reflection of internal factors. For example, the lack of market demand and the competition of foreign similar products are related to the excessive cost of the industry and the decline of competitiveness caused by the lack of talents; internal capital chain tensions indirectly exacerbate market disorder and unfair competition. factor. The vicious circle between these internal and external factors is a thorny issue facing the current industry. Therefore, to solve this dilemma, we must start from solving internal problems. From the countermeasures adopted by enterprises, 10 of the more concentrated problems accounted for 90.9% of the total, and 3 were measures against external problems (accounting for 24.2%): strengthening market segmentation (13.5%), increasing market and Sales investment (5.5%) and enhanced export business (5.2%); 7 measures for internal problems (66.9%): control costs (18.5%), strengthen enterprise management (13%), and strengthen product quality control (10.4) %), increase R&D investment (8.1%), strengthen talent team construction (6.5%), reduce staff efficiency (5.2%) and digest inventory (5.2%). The measures for internal problems in the business process accounted for 66.9%, indicating that these issues are in the most urgent and dominant position. If industrial policies can focus more and more on these major problems and solutions, it will inevitably promote the machine tool industry to break away from the dilemma of supply and demand structural contradictions and enhance the core competitiveness and development level of the industry.

[Introduction to the background of the machine tool industry boom index]
● The index is an annual questionnaire survey conducted by the China Machine Tool Industry Association for key industry contacts in December. The annual industry sentiment index is calculated based on the returned questionnaire.
● The index is a comprehensive index consisting of orders, operations, costs, environment, and expected five categories of individual indicators. The weights of each individual indicator are 30%, 20%, 20%, 10%, and 20%, respectively. The cost is reversed to make it consistent with other metrics. The diffusion index can be an overview of the overall trend. The index is greater than 50%, indicating that the economy is rising, the industry is expanding or prosperous; the index is less than 50%, indicating that the economy is declining and the industry is in a state of recession or depression. (Du Zhiqiang, Information and Statistics Department, China Machine Tool Industry Association)

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